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La Liga

Referee: Jesús Gil

Real Madrid

S U S T T

2–1

Full-time

Vallecano

S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Vallecano

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

33%

100%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,2

3,3

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

1,5

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 49%

63%

34%

Points per game

2,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

54%

Both score Ø 57%

54%

60%

Average goals

2,9

2,5

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

0,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,29 xG 0,68

61% Possession 39%

12 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 2

4 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 3. · Vallecano 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	36	27	4	5	+48	+14.4	85
2	Ath Madrid	35	22	6	7	+36	+17.2	72
3	Real Madrid	35	22	5	8	+37	+18.0	71
4	Sociedad	36	20	8	8	+16	+8.1	68
5	Villarreal	35	18	6	11	+18	+10.2	60
6	Betis	35	16	8	11	+5	-0.2	56
7	Ath Bilbao	35	14	8	13	+7	+3.9	50
8	Girona	36	13	10	13	+5	-5.8	49
9	Sevilla	35	13	9	13	-5	+7.2	48
10	Osasuna	35	13	8	14	-7	-11.3	47
11	Vallecano	35	12	10	13	-5	-3.6	46
12	Mallorca	35	12	8	15	-7	-4.4	44
13	Valencia	35	11	7	17	-2	-2.0	40
14	Celta	36	10	10	16	-10	-3.0	40
15	Almeria	36	11	6	19	-16	-9.7	39
16	Cadiz	35	9	11	15	-22	-5.0	38
17	Valladolid	36	11	5	20	-30	-14.9	38
18	Getafe	35	8	11	16	-13	-3.9	35
19	Espanol	35	8	10	17	-17	-7.1	34
20	Elche	35	4	8	23	-38	-8.1	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	18	14	3	1	+30	+11.2	45
2	Real Madrid	17	12	4	1	+27	+15.2	40
3	Ath Madrid	18	12	3	3	+25	+14.8	39
4	Villarreal	17	11	2	4	+16	+9.5	35
5	Sociedad	18	10	5	3	+9	+9.3	35
6	Girona	18	10	3	5	+10	+2.0	33
7	Almeria	18	10	2	6	+7	+1.2	32
8	Betis	17	9	4	4	+9	+1.5	31
9	Mallorca	17	8	5	4	+6	+2.3	29
10	Vallecano	18	8	5	5	+5	+0.2	29
11	Valencia	18	8	4	6	+8	+3.6	28
12	Osasuna	17	9	1	7	+0	-2.0	28
13	Ath Bilbao	18	8	3	7	+8	+0.4	27
14	Valladolid	18	8	3	7	-4	-1.1	27
15	Sevilla	18	7	5	6	+0	+11.5	26
16	Celta	18	6	6	6	+4	+2.6	24
17	Getafe	18	6	6	6	+0	+1.0	24
18	Cadiz	18	6	6	6	-5	+0.8	24
19	Espanol	17	4	5	8	-8	+2.7	17
20	Elche	17	3	4	10	-11	+1.9	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	18	13	1	4	+18	+3.2	40
2	Ath Madrid	17	10	3	4	+11	+2.3	33
3	Sociedad	18	10	3	5	+7	-1.1	33
4	Real Madrid	18	10	1	7	+10	+2.7	31
5	Villarreal	18	7	4	7	+2	+0.7	25
6	Betis	18	7	4	7	-4	-1.7	25
7	Ath Bilbao	17	6	5	6	-1	+3.5	23
8	Sevilla	17	6	4	7	-5	-4.4	22
9	Osasuna	18	4	7	7	-7	-9.3	19
10	Espanol	18	4	5	9	-9	-9.8	17
11	Vallecano	17	4	5	8	-10	-3.9	17
12	Girona	18	3	7	8	-5	-7.7	16
13	Celta	18	4	4	10	-14	-5.6	16
14	Mallorca	18	4	3	11	-13	-6.7	15
15	Cadiz	17	3	5	9	-17	-5.8	14
16	Valencia	17	3	3	11	-10	-5.7	12
17	Getafe	17	2	5	10	-13	-4.9	11
18	Valladolid	18	3	2	13	-26	-13.8	11
19	Almeria	18	1	4	13	-23	-10.9	7
20	Elche	18	1	4	13	-27	-9.9	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.