La Liga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Sociedad
Celta
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | xG +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Valencia
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | +1.4 | 6 |
| 2 |
Ath Madrid
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | +1.5 | 3 |
| 3 |
Real Madrid
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | +0.5 | 3 |
| 4 |
Osasuna
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | -0.0 | 3 |
| 5 |
Vallecano
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | +0.7 | 3 |
| 6 |
Betis
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | +0.1 | 3 |
| 7 |
Cadiz
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | +0.4 | 3 |
| 8 |
Villarreal
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +0 | +1.4 | 3 |
| 9 |
Sociedad
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | -0.2 | 1 |
| 10 |
Girona
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | +0.2 | 1 |
| 11 |
Getafe
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | -0.9 | 1 |
| 12 |
Barcelona
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | +0.9 | 1 |
| 13 |
Las Palmas
|
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | -1.7 | 1 |
| 14 |
Mallorca
|
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | -0.9 | 1 |
| 15 |
Sevilla
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | -0.4 | 0 |
| 16 |
Alaves
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | -0.4 | 0 |
| 17 |
Granada
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | -1.5 | 0 |
| 18 |
Ath Bilbao
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
| 19 |
Celta
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | +0.0 | 0 |
| 20 |
Almeria
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Álex Remiro
G
Hamari Traore
D
Igor Zubeldia
D
Robin Le Normand
D
Aihen Muñoz
D
Martín Zubimendi
M
Beñat Turrientes
M
Takefusa Kubo
F
Carlos Fernández
F
Ander Barrenetxea
F
Coach: Imanol Alguacil
Iván Villar
G
Óscar Mingueza
D
Carl Starfelt
D
Unai Núñez
D
Manuel Sánchez
D
Fran Beltrán
M
Hugo Sotelo
M
Iago Aspas
F
Jørgen Strand Larsen
F
Coach: Rafael Benítez
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Sociedad
Girona
Sociedad
Sevilla
Ath Madrid
Sociedad
Sociedad
Almeria
Barcelona
Sociedad
Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias · 33 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.