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Süper Lig

Referee: Z Küçük

Kayserispor

S S U S S

3–4

Full-time

Fenerbahce

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Kayserispor Fenerbahce

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,8

Scored

1,8

2,3

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Süper Lig · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 70%

53%

87%

Points per game

1,9

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

40%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

53%

47%

Average goals

2,3

3,4

Scored

1,4

2,7

Conceded

0,9

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

2,09 xG 1,81

51% Possession 49%

14 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

22 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 2

The table before the match Kayserispor 4. · Fenerbahce 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Fenerbahce	15	13	1	1	+29	+28.0	40
2	Galatasaray	15	13	1	1	+22	+22.4	40
3	Trabzonspor	16	9	2	5	+11	+0.3	29
4	Kayserispor	15	8	5	2	+7	-2.4	29
5	Besiktas	15	8	2	5	+3	+5.8	26
6	Ad. Demirspor	16	6	6	4	+8	-0.1	24
7	Antalyaspor	15	6	5	4	+5	-0.3	23
8	Rizespor	15	6	4	5	-5	-5.8	22
9	Kasimpasa	15	6	3	6	-4	-5.8	21
10	Hatayspor	15	4	6	5	+2	+4.3	18
11	Ankaragücü	15	4	6	5	+0	-2.8	18
12	Buyuksehyr	16	5	3	8	-3	-2.7	18
13	Sivasspor	16	4	6	6	-8	-3.8	18
14	Karagumruk	15	4	5	6	+4	-4.2	17
15	Gaziantep	16	5	1	10	-10	-5.9	16
16	Konyaspor	15	3	5	7	-6	-3.9	14
17	Samsunspor	15	4	2	9	-8	+2.8	14
18	Alanyaspor	15	3	5	7	-11	-2.5	14
19	Pendikspor	15	3	4	8	-17	-9.2	13
20	İstanbulspor	16	2	2	12	-19	-14.3	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Fenerbahce	8	7	0	1	+16	+14.7	21
2	Galatasaray	7	7	0	0	+13	+13.9	21
3	Ad. Demirspor	8	6	1	1	+13	+4.0	19
4	Kayserispor	8	5	3	0	+8	+3.9	18
5	Besiktas	7	5	1	1	+6	+3.9	16
6	Trabzonspor	7	5	0	2	+5	+1.8	15
7	Antalyaspor	8	4	3	1	+3	-0.5	15
8	Rizespor	7	4	2	1	+3	+1.3	14
9	Buyuksehyr	8	4	1	3	+4	+0.7	13
10	Kasimpasa	8	4	1	3	-1	-3.4	13
11	Karagumruk	8	3	3	2	+6	-0.9	12
12	Hatayspor	7	3	3	1	+3	+2.6	12
13	Samsunspor	7	3	1	3	+0	+1.5	10
14	Ankaragücü	8	2	4	2	+0	+0.8	10
15	Gaziantep	8	3	1	4	-3	-3.0	10
16	Alanyaspor	8	2	3	3	-2	+1.0	9
17	Konyaspor	8	2	2	4	-1	-0.1	8
18	İstanbulspor	9	2	1	6	-8	-9.3	7
19	Sivasspor	7	0	5	2	-3	+1.9	5
20	Pendikspor	7	1	2	4	-11	-7.8	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Fenerbahce	7	6	1	0	+13	+13.3	19
2	Galatasaray	8	6	1	1	+9	+8.5	19
3	Trabzonspor	9	4	2	3	+6	-1.5	14
4	Sivasspor	9	4	1	4	-5	-5.7	13
5	Kayserispor	7	3	2	2	-1	-6.3	11
6	Besiktas	8	3	1	4	-3	+1.9	10
7	Antalyaspor	7	2	2	3	+2	+0.2	8
8	Ankaragücü	7	2	2	3	+0	-3.5	8
9	Kasimpasa	7	2	2	3	-3	-2.4	8
10	Pendikspor	8	2	2	4	-6	-1.3	8
11	Rizespor	8	2	2	4	-8	-7.1	8
12	Hatayspor	8	1	3	4	-1	+1.7	6
13	Konyaspor	7	1	3	3	-5	-3.8	6
14	Gaziantep	8	2	0	6	-7	-2.9	6
15	Karagumruk	7	1	2	4	-2	-3.2	5
16	Ad. Demirspor	8	0	5	3	-5	-4.1	5
17	Buyuksehyr	8	1	2	5	-7	-3.4	5
18	Alanyaspor	7	1	2	4	-9	-3.5	5
19	Samsunspor	8	1	1	6	-8	+1.3	4
20	İstanbulspor	7	0	1	6	-11	-5.0	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.