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La Liga

Referee: Cesar Soto Grado

Villarreal

U U T S T

3–2

Full-time

Celta

U U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Celta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,2

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 18%

24%

12%

Points per game

0,9

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

71%

35%

Both score Ø 68%

82%

53%

Average goals

3,3

2,4

Scored

1,4

0,9

Conceded

1,9

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,37 xG 1,28

48% Possession 52%

12 Shots 15

8 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 7

16 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 15. · Celta 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Girona	17	14	2	1	+21	+8.7	44
2	Real Madrid	17	13	3	1	+27	+14.4	42
3	Barcelona	18	11	5	2	+13	+22.6	38
4	Ath Madrid	17	11	2	4	+16	+10.0	35
5	Ath Bilbao	17	9	5	3	+14	+11.9	32
6	Sociedad	17	8	6	3	+11	+1.9	30
7	Betis	17	6	9	2	+2	-0.1	27
8	Getafe	18	6	8	4	+1	-2.9	26
9	Las Palmas	17	7	4	6	+1	-5.9	25
10	Valencia	18	6	5	7	-3	-2.6	23
11	Vallecano	18	4	8	6	-8	-5.2	20
12	Osasuna	17	5	4	8	-7	-5.4	19
13	Sevilla	17	3	7	7	-1	-6.4	16
14	Alaves	17	4	4	9	-9	+1.3	16
15	Villarreal	17	4	4	9	-10	-6.6	16
16	Mallorca	17	2	9	6	-6	-2.3	15
17	Cadiz	17	2	8	7	-10	-10.8	14
18	Celta	17	2	7	8	-9	-1.1	13
19	Granada	18	1	5	12	-20	-13.1	8
20	Almeria	18	0	5	13	-23	-8.4	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	9	8	1	0	+11	+10.1	25
2	Barcelona	10	8	0	2	+10	+12.2	24
3	Real Madrid	8	7	1	0	+17	+12.3	22
4	Girona	9	7	1	1	+11	+4.1	22
5	Ath Bilbao	9	6	2	1	+13	+10.8	20
6	Betis	8	5	3	0	+8	+6.2	18
7	Sociedad	9	5	3	1	+7	+0.3	18
8	Getafe	8	5	3	0	+5	+1.6	18
9	Las Palmas	8	4	3	1	+4	-0.9	15
10	Valencia	8	4	2	2	+5	+1.8	14
11	Alaves	8	4	1	3	+0	+5.0	13
12	Sevilla	9	2	4	3	+0	-1.9	10
13	Cadiz	8	2	4	2	-1	+1.6	10
14	Mallorca	8	1	6	1	+0	-1.1	9
15	Osasuna	9	2	3	4	-4	-0.7	9
16	Vallecano	9	1	5	3	-7	-3.5	8
17	Villarreal	9	2	1	6	-5	-0.2	7
18	Celta	9	1	4	4	-6	+3.7	7
19	Granada	9	1	4	4	-7	-4.6	7
20	Almeria	9	0	4	5	-8	-0.1	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Girona	8	7	1	0	+10	+4.6	22
2	Real Madrid	9	6	2	1	+10	+2.1	20
3	Barcelona	8	3	5	0	+3	+10.3	14
4	Sociedad	8	3	3	2	+4	+1.6	12
5	Ath Bilbao	8	3	3	2	+1	+1.1	12
6	Vallecano	9	3	3	3	-1	-1.7	12
7	Ath Madrid	8	3	1	4	+5	-0.1	10
8	Osasuna	8	3	1	4	-3	-4.7	10
9	Las Palmas	9	3	1	5	-3	-5.0	10
10	Villarreal	8	2	3	3	-5	-6.4	9
11	Betis	9	1	6	2	-6	-6.4	9
12	Valencia	10	2	3	5	-8	-4.4	9
13	Getafe	10	1	5	4	-4	-4.5	8
14	Sevilla	8	1	3	4	-1	-4.5	6
15	Celta	8	1	3	4	-3	-4.8	6
16	Mallorca	9	1	3	5	-6	-1.2	6
17	Cadiz	9	0	4	5	-9	-12.4	4
18	Alaves	9	0	3	6	-9	-3.8	3
19	Granada	9	0	1	8	-13	-8.5	1
20	Almeria	9	0	1	8	-15	-8.3	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.