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La Liga

Referee: J Martinez

Real Madrid

S T T U T

2–1

Full-time

Alaves

T U S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Alaves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 92%

100%

83%

Average goals

3,8

4,3

Scored

1,8

2,0

Conceded

2,0

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 49%

71%

26%

Points per game

2,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

61%

48%

Both score Ø 60%

58%

61%

Average goals

3,0

2,6

Scored

2,1

1,1

Conceded

0,9

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,62 xG 1,76

61% Possession 39%

24 Shots 19

8 Shots on target 5

7 Blocked shots 7

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

9 Corners 6

4 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 2. · Alaves 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	31	26	1	4	+54	+39.6	79
2	Real Madrid	31	22	4	5	+36	+34.3	70
3	Villarreal	31	19	4	8	+20	+9.9	61
4	Ath Madrid	31	17	6	8	+19	+9.7	57
5	Betis	31	11	13	7	+7	+9.8	46
6	Celta	31	11	11	9	+4	+3.5	44
7	Sociedad	31	11	9	11	+1	-1.2	42
8	Getafe	31	12	5	14	-5	-10.2	41
9	Ath Bilbao	32	12	5	15	-11	+8.3	41
10	Osasuna	32	10	9	13	-2	-3.2	39
11	Espanol	31	10	8	13	-11	-4.3	38
12	Girona	31	9	11	11	-12	-11.4	38
13	Valencia	32	9	9	14	-12	+3.4	36
14	Mallorca	32	9	8	15	-9	-17.5	35
15	Vallecano	31	8	11	12	-9	+3.6	35
16	Sevilla	31	9	7	15	-12	-17.0	34
17	Alaves	31	8	9	14	-11	-4.0	33
18	Elche	31	7	11	13	-8	-20.6	32
19	Levante	31	7	8	16	-15	-12.9	29
20	Oviedo	31	6	9	16	-24	-19.7	27

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	16	16	0	0	+42	+26.6	48
2	Real Madrid	16	13	1	2	+24	+23.3	40
3	Ath Madrid	16	13	1	2	+21	+16.5	40
4	Villarreal	15	12	1	2	+21	+9.6	37
5	Osasuna	15	8	5	2	+9	+7.2	29
6	Mallorca	17	8	5	4	+7	+0.3	29
7	Ath Bilbao	17	9	2	6	+2	+10.7	29
8	Elche	16	7	7	2	+9	-3.8	28
9	Sociedad	16	8	4	4	+8	+5.5	28
10	Betis	15	7	5	3	+10	+9.4	26
11	Vallecano	15	5	8	2	+6	+10.2	23
12	Valencia	15	6	5	4	+3	+10.6	23
13	Girona	15	6	4	5	-4	-7.0	22
14	Getafe	15	6	3	6	+3	-2.5	21
15	Alaves	15	5	6	4	+1	+1.6	21
16	Espanol	15	6	3	6	-3	+1.2	21
17	Sevilla	16	5	4	7	-2	-3.9	19
18	Celta	16	4	5	7	-1	+4.7	17
19	Levante	16	4	5	7	-7	-3.9	17
20	Oviedo	15	4	5	6	-7	-9.1	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	15	10	1	4	+12	+13.0	31
2	Real Madrid	15	9	3	3	+12	+11.0	30
3	Celta	15	7	6	2	+5	-1.2	27
4	Villarreal	16	7	3	6	-1	+0.3	24
5	Betis	16	4	8	4	-3	+0.4	20
6	Getafe	16	6	2	8	-8	-7.7	20
7	Ath Madrid	15	4	5	6	-2	-6.8	17
8	Espanol	16	4	5	7	-8	-5.4	17
9	Girona	16	3	7	6	-8	-4.4	16
10	Sevilla	15	4	3	8	-10	-13.2	15
11	Sociedad	15	3	5	7	-7	-6.7	14
12	Valencia	17	3	4	10	-15	-7.2	13
13	Levante	15	3	3	9	-8	-9.0	12
14	Alaves	16	3	3	10	-12	-5.6	12
15	Ath Bilbao	15	3	3	9	-13	-2.4	12
16	Vallecano	16	3	3	10	-15	-6.6	12
17	Osasuna	17	2	4	11	-11	-10.4	10
18	Oviedo	16	2	4	10	-17	-10.5	10
19	Mallorca	15	1	3	11	-16	-17.8	6
20	Elche	15	0	4	11	-17	-16.8	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.