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La Liga

Referee: Alejandro Muñiz

Real Madrid

U S S S S

3–2

Full-time

Alaves

U S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Alaves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

2,5

1,5

Conceded

0,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

2,2

1,5

Conceded

0,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,32 xG 0,88

69% Possession 31%

10 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 10

4 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 2. · Alaves 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	6	6	0	0	+17	+9.8	18
2	Real Madrid	6	4	2	0	+10	+10.9	14
3	Ath Bilbao	7	4	1	2	+4	-0.5	13
4	Ath Madrid	6	3	3	0	+7	+6.0	12
5	Mallorca	7	3	2	2	+1	+0.4	11
6	Villarreal	6	3	2	1	-1	-0.4	11
7	Osasuna	7	3	2	2	-3	-2.9	11
8	Alaves	6	3	1	2	+2	+2.6	10
9	Celta	6	3	0	3	+1	+1.3	9
10	Vallecano	6	2	2	2	+1	+1.1	8
11	Betis	6	2	2	2	+0	+3.5	8
12	Sevilla	7	2	2	3	-2	+0.7	8
13	Girona	6	2	1	3	-2	+2.4	7
14	Espanol	6	2	1	3	-3	-5.8	7
15	Leganes	7	1	3	3	-4	-4.9	6
16	Sociedad	7	1	2	4	-4	-3.1	5
17	Valencia	7	1	2	4	-5	-6.4	5
18	Valladolid	7	1	2	4	-12	-7.3	5
19	Getafe	6	0	4	2	-2	-0.5	4
20	Las Palmas	6	0	2	4	-5	-6.7	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Osasuna	4	3	1	0	+3	+0.9	10
2	Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	+8	+7.8	9
3	Celta	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.0	9
4	Ath Madrid	3	2	1	0	+6	+5.5	7
5	Alaves	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.7	7
6	Betis	4	2	1	1	+2	+4.2	7
7	Ath Bilbao	4	2	1	1	+2	-1.2	7
8	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	+8	+4.2	6
9	Espanol	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.3	6
10	Sevilla	4	2	0	2	-1	+1.0	6
11	Valencia	4	1	2	1	+1	-1.7	5
12	Valladolid	3	1	2	0	+1	+0.5	5
13	Mallorca	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.2	5
14	Vallecano	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.6	4
15	Villarreal	3	1	1	1	-3	-1.4	4
16	Girona	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.8	3
17	Getafe	3	0	3	0	+0	+1.7	3
18	Leganes	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.4	3
19	Las Palmas	3	0	2	1	-1	-3.7	2
20	Sociedad	3	0	0	3	-4	-1.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	4	4	0	0	+9	+5.6	12
2	Villarreal	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.9	7
3	Ath Bilbao	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.7	6
4	Mallorca	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.7	6
5	Real Madrid	3	1	2	0	+2	+3.1	5
6	Ath Madrid	3	1	2	0	+1	+0.5	5
7	Sociedad	4	1	2	1	+0	-1.4	5
8	Vallecano	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.6	4
9	Girona	4	1	1	2	-3	+0.6	4
10	Alaves	3	1	0	2	-1	+1.9	3
11	Leganes	4	0	3	1	-2	-4.5	3
12	Sevilla	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.3	2
13	Getafe	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.2	1
14	Betis	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.7	1
15	Espanol	3	0	1	2	-4	-6.1	1
16	Osasuna	3	0	1	2	-6	-3.8	1
17	Celta	3	0	0	3	-4	+0.4	0
18	Las Palmas	3	0	0	3	-4	-2.9	0
19	Valencia	3	0	0	3	-6	-4.8	0
20	Valladolid	4	0	0	4	-13	-7.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.