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Serie A

Referee: M Fabbri

Roma

S S T T T

2–1

Full-time

Parma

U S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Parma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,5

3,2

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,2

This season — Serie A · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 42%

47%

37%

Points per game

1,6

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

63%

47%

Both score Ø 58%

63%

53%

Average goals

3,2

2,7

Scored

1,8

1,4

Conceded

1,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

58% Possession 42%

15 Shots 4

7 Shots on target 2

8 Blocked shots 4

0 Goalkeeper saves 6

9 Corners 3

1 Offside 3

17 Free kicks against 10

5 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 7. · Parma 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	31	24	3	4	+35	75
2	Lazio	31	21	5	5	+34	68
3	Inter	30	19	7	4	+32	64
4	Atalanta	30	19	6	5	+44	63
5	Napoli	31	15	6	10	+9	51
6	Milan	31	14	7	10	+4	49
7	Roma	30	14	6	10	+12	48
8	Verona	30	11	9	10	+1	42
9	Bologna	30	11	8	11	-4	41
10	Sassuolo	30	11	7	12	+3	40
11	Cagliari	31	10	10	11	+2	40
12	Parma	30	11	6	13	+1	39
13	Fiorentina	31	8	11	12	-6	35
14	Sampdoria	30	9	5	16	-15	32
15	Udinese	30	8	8	14	-16	32
16	Torino	30	9	4	17	-22	31
17	Lecce	31	7	7	17	-31	28
18	Genoa	31	6	9	16	-22	27
19	Brescia	30	5	6	19	-31	21
20	Spal	30	5	4	21	-30	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	15	14	1	0	+28	43
2	Lazio	16	12	3	1	+27	39
3	Inter	16	9	5	2	+19	32
4	Atalanta	15	9	2	4	+20	29
5	Verona	15	8	3	4	+5	27
6	Roma	15	7	3	5	+6	24
7	Sassuolo	15	7	2	6	+8	23
8	Napoli	15	7	2	6	+2	23
9	Milan	15	6	5	4	+2	23
10	Cagliari	15	6	2	7	+3	20
11	Udinese	15	5	5	5	-3	20
12	Parma	15	6	1	8	+3	19
13	Sampdoria	16	5	4	7	-4	19
14	Bologna	15	4	6	5	-4	18
15	Torino	15	5	3	7	-11	18
16	Fiorentina	16	3	7	6	-6	16
17	Lecce	16	3	5	8	-10	14
18	Genoa	15	4	1	10	-10	13
19	Brescia	15	2	4	9	-10	10
20	Spal	14	2	3	9	-10	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Atalanta	15	10	4	1	+24	34
2	Inter	14	10	2	2	+13	32
3	Juventus	16	10	2	4	+7	32
4	Lazio	15	9	2	4	+7	29
5	Napoli	16	8	4	4	+7	28
6	Milan	16	8	2	6	+2	26
7	Roma	15	7	3	5	+6	24
8	Bologna	15	7	2	6	+0	23
9	Cagliari	16	4	8	4	-1	20
10	Parma	15	5	5	5	-2	20
11	Fiorentina	15	5	4	6	+0	19
12	Sassuolo	15	4	5	6	-5	17
13	Verona	15	3	6	6	-4	15
14	Genoa	16	2	8	6	-12	14
15	Lecce	15	4	2	9	-21	14
16	Torino	15	4	1	10	-11	13
17	Sampdoria	14	4	1	9	-11	13
18	Udinese	15	3	3	9	-13	12
19	Brescia	15	3	2	10	-21	11
20	Spal	16	3	1	12	-20	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.