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Championship

Referee: J Gillett

Birmingham

T U U T T

1–3

Full-time

Swansea

U S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

2,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,5

This season — Championship · 41/39 matches

Win Ø 34%

29%

38%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

49%

46%

Both score Ø 58%

59%

56%

Average goals

2,8

2,4

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

39% Possession 61%

20 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 6

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 17. · Swansea 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	42	22	14	6	+33	80
2	Leeds	41	23	9	9	+29	78
3	Fulham	40	21	9	10	+13	72
4	Nott'm Forest	42	18	14	10	+12	68
5	Brentford	39	19	9	11	+35	66
6	Cardiff	41	16	15	10	+6	63
7	Derby	42	16	13	13	+1	61
8	Swansea	39	15	15	9	+9	60
9	Blackburn	42	16	11	15	+4	59
10	Millwall	42	14	17	11	+2	59
11	Preston	41	16	10	15	+2	58
12	Bristol City	41	15	10	16	-7	55
13	Reading	42	14	11	17	+5	53
14	QPR	41	15	8	18	-6	53
15	Sheffield Weds	41	14	10	17	-6	52
16	Wigan	41	13	11	17	-8	50
17	Birmingham	41	12	13	16	-13	49
18	Middlesbrough	42	11	14	17	-11	47
19	Huddersfield	42	12	11	19	-14	47
20	Stoke	41	13	7	21	-7	46
21	Charlton	42	12	10	20	-10	46
22	Hull	41	12	9	20	-16	45
23	Barnsley	42	10	12	20	-21	42
24	Luton	42	11	8	23	-32	41

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Derby	21	11	8	2	+16	41
2	Leeds	20	12	5	3	+16	41
3	Fulham	21	13	2	6	+10	41
4	Brentford	19	11	5	3	+23	38
5	West Brom	21	10	8	3	+17	38
6	Preston	21	11	3	7	+8	36
7	Cardiff	20	9	8	3	+10	35
8	Blackburn	21	9	8	4	+8	35
9	Nott'm Forest	21	10	4	7	+3	34
10	Swansea	20	9	5	6	+7	32
11	Millwall	21	8	8	5	+4	32
12	Stoke	21	9	3	9	+7	30
13	Wigan	20	8	6	6	+1	30
14	QPR	21	8	5	8	+2	29
15	Charlton	21	8	5	8	+2	29
16	Huddersfield	21	7	6	8	-3	27
17	Luton	21	7	6	8	-5	27
18	Sheffield Weds	20	7	6	7	-8	27
19	Bristol City	20	7	5	8	-4	26
20	Barnsley	21	6	8	7	-5	26
21	Middlesbrough	21	6	8	7	-5	26
22	Reading	21	7	4	10	-4	25
23	Birmingham	20	6	6	8	-5	24
24	Hull	21	7	3	11	-6	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	21	12	6	3	+16	42
2	Leeds	21	11	4	6	+13	37
3	Nott'm Forest	21	8	10	3	+9	34
4	Fulham	19	8	7	4	+3	31
5	Bristol City	21	8	5	8	-3	29
6	Brentford	20	8	4	8	+12	28
7	Reading	21	7	7	7	+9	28
8	Swansea	19	6	10	3	+2	28
9	Cardiff	21	7	7	7	-4	28
10	Millwall	21	6	9	6	-2	27
11	Sheffield Weds	21	7	4	10	+2	25
12	Birmingham	21	6	7	8	-8	25
13	Blackburn	21	7	3	11	-4	24
14	QPR	20	7	3	10	-8	24
15	Preston	20	5	7	8	-6	22
16	Middlesbrough	21	5	6	10	-6	21
17	Hull	20	5	6	9	-10	21
18	Wigan	21	5	5	11	-9	20
19	Huddersfield	21	5	5	11	-11	20
20	Derby	21	5	5	11	-15	20
21	Charlton	21	4	5	12	-12	17
22	Stoke	20	4	4	12	-14	16
23	Barnsley	21	4	4	13	-16	16
24	Luton	21	4	2	15	-27	14

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.