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Primeira Liga

Referee: João Bento

Aves

U T T T S

1–0

Full-time

Vitoria Setubal

U T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aves Vitoria Setubal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

83%

Average goals

1,8

3,3

Scored

0,2

1,2

Conceded

1,7

2,2

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-1,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 32/30 matches

Win Ø 18%

16%

20%

Points per game

0,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

50%

40%

Both score Ø 42%

41%

43%

Average goals

2,6

2,1

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,1

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

41% Possession 59%

7 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 4

2 Offside 2

20 Free kicks against 17

5 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Aves 19. · Vitoria Setubal 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	32	25	4	3	+52	79
2	Benfica	32	22	5	5	+39	71
3	Sp Lisbon	31	18	5	8	+19	59
4	Sp Braga	32	17	5	10	+18	56
5	Rio Ave	32	15	8	9	+11	53
6	Famalicao	31	14	9	8	+4	51
7	Guimaraes	32	13	11	8	+19	50
8	Moreirense	32	9	14	9	+3	41
9	Boavista	33	11	8	14	-7	41
10	Gil Vicente	32	10	10	12	-4	40
11	Santa Clara	32	10	10	12	-7	40
12	Maritimo	33	9	12	12	-7	39
13	Pacos Ferreira	32	11	4	17	-13	37
14	Tondela	32	7	10	15	-16	31
15	Belenenses	31	8	7	16	-26	31
16	Vitoria Setubal	30	6	12	12	-16	30
17	Setubal	31	6	12	13	-17	30
18	Portimonense	32	5	14	13	-16	29
19	Aves	32	5	2	25	-36	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	16	14	1	1	+34	43
2	Benfica	16	11	2	3	+23	35
3	Sp Braga	16	10	3	3	+13	33
4	Sp Lisbon	15	11	0	4	+11	33
5	Guimaraes	16	8	4	4	+14	28
6	Famalicao	16	8	4	4	+5	28
7	Gil Vicente	16	6	7	3	+4	25
8	Moreirense	16	6	6	4	+4	24
9	Rio Ave	16	6	5	5	+4	23
10	Maritimo	16	5	7	4	+3	22
11	Boavista	17	6	4	7	+1	22
12	Santa Clara	16	5	4	7	-6	19
13	Portimonense	16	3	8	5	-3	17
14	Pacos Ferreira	16	5	2	9	-5	17
15	Setubal	15	3	7	5	-6	16
16	Vitoria Setubal	15	3	7	5	-6	16
17	Belenenses	16	4	4	8	-13	16
18	Aves	16	4	1	11	-10	13
19	Tondela	16	2	5	9	-12	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	16	11	3	2	+18	36
2	Benfica	16	11	3	2	+16	36
3	Rio Ave	16	9	3	4	+7	30
4	Sp Lisbon	16	7	5	4	+8	26
5	Sp Braga	16	7	2	7	+5	23
6	Famalicao	15	6	5	4	-1	23
7	Guimaraes	16	5	7	4	+5	22
8	Santa Clara	16	5	6	5	-1	21
9	Tondela	16	5	5	6	-4	20
10	Pacos Ferreira	16	6	2	8	-8	20
11	Boavista	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Moreirense	16	3	8	5	-1	17
13	Maritimo	17	4	5	8	-10	17
14	Gil Vicente	16	4	3	9	-8	15
15	Belenenses	15	4	3	8	-13	15
16	Vitoria Setubal	15	3	5	7	-10	14
17	Setubal	16	3	5	8	-11	14
18	Portimonense	16	2	6	8	-13	12
19	Aves	16	1	1	14	-26	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.