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Premier League

Referee: Andy Madley

Man City

S S T S T

5–0

Full-time

Newcastle

S S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

2,2

1,8

Conceded

0,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+1,2

This season — Premier League · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 49%

64%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

73%

45%

Both score Ø 47%

48%

45%

Average goals

3,5

2,4

Scored

2,5

1,1

Conceded

1,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,4

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

73% Possession 27%

23 Shots 6

9 Shots on target 1

8 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 1

2 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 7

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 2. · Newcastle 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	33	29	2	2	+47	89
2	Man City	33	21	3	9	+47	66
3	Chelsea	34	18	6	10	+17	60
4	Leicester	34	17	8	9	+32	59
5	Man United	33	15	10	8	+23	55
6	Wolves	33	13	13	7	+9	52
7	Arsenal	34	12	14	8	+8	50
8	Tottenham	33	13	9	11	+8	48
9	Sheffield United	33	12	12	9	+1	48
10	Burnley	33	13	7	13	-9	46
11	Everton	33	12	8	13	-8	44
12	Newcastle	33	11	10	12	-10	43
13	Southampton	33	13	4	16	-13	43
14	Crystal Palace	34	11	9	14	-13	42
15	Brighton	33	8	12	13	-9	36
16	West Ham	33	8	7	18	-18	31
17	Watford	34	7	10	17	-22	31
18	Aston Villa	33	7	6	20	-26	27
19	Bournemouth	33	7	6	20	-27	27
20	Norwich	34	5	6	23	-37	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	17	17	0	0	+34	51
2	Man City	16	12	2	2	+33	38
3	Man United	17	10	5	2	+23	35
4	Leicester	17	10	4	3	+18	34
5	Tottenham	17	10	3	4	+15	33
6	Chelsea	17	9	3	5	+11	30
7	Arsenal	17	8	6	3	+10	30
8	Everton	16	8	5	3	+5	29
9	Sheffield United	16	8	3	5	+6	27
10	Burnley	17	8	3	6	+2	27
11	Newcastle	17	6	8	3	+3	26
12	Wolves	17	6	7	4	+3	25
13	Crystal Palace	17	6	4	7	-3	22
14	Brighton	16	5	6	5	+0	21
15	Watford	17	5	6	6	-2	21
16	West Ham	16	5	3	8	-4	18
17	Aston Villa	16	5	3	8	-8	18
18	Bournemouth	16	4	5	7	-9	17
19	Southampton	17	5	2	10	-16	17
20	Norwich	17	4	3	10	-12	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	16	12	2	2	+13	38
2	Chelsea	17	9	3	5	+6	30
3	Man City	17	9	1	7	+14	28
4	Wolves	16	7	6	3	+6	27
5	Southampton	16	8	2	6	+3	26
6	Leicester	17	7	4	6	+14	25
7	Sheffield United	17	4	9	4	-5	21
8	Man United	16	5	5	6	+0	20
9	Arsenal	17	4	8	5	-2	20
10	Crystal Palace	17	5	5	7	-10	20
11	Burnley	16	5	4	7	-11	19
12	Newcastle	16	5	2	9	-13	17
13	Tottenham	16	3	6	7	-7	15
14	Brighton	17	3	6	8	-9	15
15	Everton	17	4	3	10	-13	15
16	West Ham	17	3	4	10	-14	13
17	Bournemouth	17	3	1	13	-18	10
18	Watford	17	2	4	11	-20	10
19	Aston Villa	17	2	3	12	-18	9
20	Norwich	17	1	3	13	-25	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.