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Serie A
Referee: M Fabbri
Inter
S S S S S
2–1
Full-time
Spezia
U U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Inter Spezia
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
83%
17%
Points per game
2,7
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,3
3,2
Scored
2,5
1,5
Conceded
0,8
1,7
Goal diff per game
+1,7
-0,2
This season — Serie A · 12/12 matches
Win Ø 42%
67%
17%
Points per game
2,3
0,9
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 71%
75%
67%
Average goals
3,8
3,5
Scored
2,5
1,4
Conceded
1,3
2,1
Goal diff per game
+1,3
-0,7
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

41% Possession 59%
10 Shots 7
4 Shots on target 1
3 Blocked shots 0
0 Goalkeeper saves 2
3 Corners 2
1 Offside 2
10 Free kicks against 9
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Inter 2. · Spezia 16.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Milan 12 8 4 0 +14 28
2 Inter 12 8 3 1 +15 27
3 Napoli 11 8 0 3 +17 24
4 Juventus 12 6 6 0 +15 24
5 Roma 12 7 3 2 +10 24
6 Sassuolo 12 6 5 1 +9 23
7 Verona 13 5 5 3 +5 20
8 Atalanta 11 5 3 3 +5 18
9 Lazio 12 5 3 4 -2 18
10 Sampdoria 13 5 2 6 +0 17
11 Udinese 11 4 2 5 -1 14
12 Bologna 13 4 2 7 -6 14
13 Cagliari 12 3 4 5 -5 13
14 Benevento 12 3 3 6 -10 12
15 Parma 13 2 6 5 -11 12
16 Spezia 12 2 5 5 -8 11
17 Fiorentina 13 2 5 6 -8 11
18 Torino 13 1 4 8 -10 7
19 Genoa 12 1 4 7 -12 7
20 Crotone 13 1 3 9 -17 6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Inter Spezia
Marcelo Brozović 🟨
18′
41′
🟨 M'Bala Nzola
43′
🟨 Claudio Terzi
Half-time 0–0
S. Sensi 🔁
↦ R. Gagliardini
46′
1–0 A. Hakimi
L. Martínez
51′
A. Vidal 🔁
↦ M. Brozović
66′
Stefano Sensi ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
70′
2–0 R. Lukaku
71′
72′
🔁 G. Maggiore
↦ A. Deiola
72′
🔁 K. Agudelo
↦ L. Mora
D. D'Ambrosio 🔁
↦ A. Hakimi
80′
I. Perišić 🔁
↦ R. Lukaku
80′
M. Darmian 🔁
↦ A. Young
80′
80′
🔁 Diego Farias
↦ E. Gyasi
80′
🔁 R. Piccoli
↦ MBala Nzola
90′
🔁 G. Mastinu
↦ G. Acampora
94′
R. Piccoli 2–1
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Inter

3-5-2
1 S. Handanovič G
15 A. Young M
6 S. de Vrij D
37 M. Škriniar D
2 A. Hakimi M
95 A. Bastoni D
77 M. Brozović M
5 R. Gagliardini M
23 N. Barella M
9 R. Lukaku F
10 L. Martínez F
Bench (10)
12 S. Sensi
22 A. Vidal
33 D. D'Ambrosio
14 I. Perišić
36 M. Darmian
24 C. Eriksen
97 I. Radu
11 A. Kolarov
13 A. Ranocchia
27 D. Padelli

Coach: A. Conte

Spezia

4-3-3
94 I. Provedel G
19 C. Terzi D
20 S. Bastoni D
69 L. Vignali D
34 A. Ismajli D
6 L. Mora M
8 M. Ricci M
4 G. Acampora F
27 A. Deiola M
18 M'Bala Nzola F
11 E. Gyasi F
Bench (12)
25 G. Maggiore
80 K. Agudelo
17 Diego Farias
91 R. Piccoli
15 G. Mastinu
5 R. Marchizza
21 Salvador Ferrer
10 L. Agoume
24 N. Estévez
12 T. Krapikas
16 P. Bartolomei
28 M. Erlić

Coach: V. Italiano

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,24
U
6,53
B
11,62
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,41
U2,5
2,88
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

M Fabbri · 116 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.