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Serie A

Referee: M Guida

Roma

S S T S U

1–2

Full-time

Milan

T S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,2

This season — Serie A · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 61%

57%

65%

Points per game

1,9

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 72%

74%

70%

Both score Ø 52%

52%

Average goals

3,6

3,2

Scored

2,0

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

53% Possession 47%

17 Shots 20

10 Shots on target 14

6 Blocked shots 3

7 Goalkeeper saves 7

5 Corners 8

1 Offside 4

14 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 5. · Milan 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	24	17	5	2	+36	56
2	Milan	23	15	4	4	+17	49
3	Juventus	23	13	7	3	+25	46
4	Atalanta	24	13	7	4	+24	46
5	Roma	23	13	5	5	+12	44
6	Napoli	23	14	1	8	+24	43
7	Lazio	24	13	4	7	+6	43
8	Verona	24	9	8	7	+4	35
9	Sassuolo	23	9	8	6	+3	35
10	Sampdoria	24	9	3	12	-3	30
11	Bologna	24	7	7	10	-5	28
12	Udinese	24	7	7	10	-7	28
13	Genoa	24	6	8	10	-10	26
14	Spezia	24	6	7	11	-11	25
15	Fiorentina	24	6	7	11	-11	25
16	Benevento	24	6	7	11	-19	25
17	Torino	23	3	11	9	-8	20
18	Cagliari	24	4	6	14	-15	18
19	Parma	24	2	9	13	-28	15
20	Crotone	24	3	3	18	-34	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	12	10	1	1	+21	31
2	Roma	12	9	3	0	+18	30
3	Juventus	11	8	2	1	+15	26
4	Napoli	12	8	1	3	+20	25
5	Lazio	12	7	2	3	+4	23
6	Atalanta	12	6	3	3	+12	21
7	Milan	12	6	3	3	+6	21
8	Verona	12	6	3	3	+6	21
9	Fiorentina	12	5	4	3	+3	19
10	Bologna	12	5	3	4	+1	18
11	Sampdoria	12	5	1	6	+0	16
12	Genoa	12	4	3	5	-1	15
13	Udinese	12	4	3	5	-2	15
14	Sassuolo	11	3	5	3	+0	14
15	Benevento	12	2	5	5	-9	11
16	Spezia	12	2	4	6	-7	10
17	Crotone	12	3	1	8	-10	10
18	Cagliari	12	2	3	7	-8	9
19	Parma	12	1	5	6	-15	8
20	Torino	11	0	7	4	-5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	11	9	1	1	+11	28
2	Inter	12	7	4	1	+15	25
3	Atalanta	12	7	4	1	+12	25
4	Sassuolo	12	6	3	3	+3	21
5	Juventus	12	5	5	2	+10	20
6	Lazio	12	6	2	4	+2	20
7	Napoli	11	6	0	5	+4	18
8	Spezia	12	4	3	5	-4	15
9	Verona	12	3	5	4	-2	14
10	Sampdoria	12	4	2	6	-3	14
11	Roma	11	4	2	5	-6	14
12	Benevento	12	4	2	6	-10	14
13	Torino	12	3	4	5	-3	13
14	Udinese	12	3	4	5	-5	13
15	Genoa	12	2	5	5	-9	11
16	Bologna	12	2	4	6	-6	10
17	Cagliari	12	2	3	7	-7	9
18	Parma	12	1	4	7	-13	7
19	Fiorentina	12	1	3	8	-14	6
20	Crotone	12	0	2	10	-24	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.