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Serie A

Referee: Davide Massa

Roma

S T S T T

2–2

Full-time

Fiorentina

U T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 92%

83%

100%

Average goals

3,7

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

2,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,0

This season — Serie A · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 37%

45%

28%

Points per game

1,6

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

66%

41%

Both score Ø 64%

66%

62%

Average goals

3,3

2,8

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

49% Possession 51%

15 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 6

0 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 7. · Fiorentina 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	30	26	3	1	+43	81
2	Napoli	30	19	6	5	+31	63
3	Inter	29	16	5	8	+18	53
4	Milan	30	14	10	6	+16	52
5	Atalanta	29	14	6	9	+20	48
6	Lazio	28	14	6	8	+13	48
7	Roma	29	13	8	8	+10	47
8	Sampdoria	29	13	6	10	+12	45
9	Torino	29	11	12	6	+11	45
10	Fiorentina	29	8	14	7	+8	38
11	Genoa	29	8	9	12	-10	33
12	Cagliari	30	8	9	13	-14	33
13	Parma	29	9	6	14	-16	33
14	Sassuolo	29	7	11	11	-9	32
15	Udinese	29	7	8	14	-14	29
16	Spal	29	7	8	14	-16	29
17	Empoli	30	7	7	16	-18	28
18	Bologna	29	6	9	14	-16	27
19	Frosinone	29	3	8	18	-33	17
20	Chievo	29	1	11	17	-36	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	15	13	2	0	+24	41
2	Napoli	15	11	3	1	+22	36
3	Milan	16	9	4	3	+10	31
4	Inter	14	9	2	3	+14	29
5	Roma	14	8	4	2	+10	28
6	Lazio	14	8	3	3	+12	27
7	Sampdoria	14	8	2	4	+11	26
8	Torino	14	8	1	5	+7	25
9	Genoa	15	6	6	3	+4	24
10	Cagliari	15	6	6	3	+3	24
11	Empoli	16	7	3	6	+1	24
12	Fiorentina	14	5	7	2	+9	22
13	Atalanta	14	6	4	4	+9	22
14	Udinese	15	6	3	6	-2	21
15	Sassuolo	15	4	7	4	-4	19
16	Bologna	14	4	4	6	-6	16
17	Parma	15	4	4	7	-8	16
18	Spal	14	3	6	5	-6	15
19	Chievo	15	1	5	9	-17	8
20	Frosinone	14	0	5	9	-19	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	15	13	1	1	+19	40
2	Napoli	15	8	3	4	+9	27
3	Atalanta	15	8	2	5	+11	26
4	Inter	15	7	3	5	+4	24
5	Milan	14	5	6	3	+6	21
6	Lazio	14	6	3	5	+1	21
7	Torino	15	3	11	1	+4	20
8	Sampdoria	15	5	4	6	+1	19
9	Roma	15	5	4	6	+0	19
10	Parma	14	5	2	7	-8	17
11	Fiorentina	15	3	7	5	-1	16
12	Spal	15	4	2	9	-10	14
13	Sassuolo	14	3	4	7	-5	13
14	Frosinone	15	3	3	9	-14	12
15	Bologna	15	2	5	8	-10	11
16	Genoa	14	2	3	9	-14	9
17	Cagliari	15	2	3	10	-17	9
18	Udinese	14	1	5	8	-12	8
19	Chievo	14	0	6	8	-19	6
20	Empoli	14	0	4	10	-19	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.