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Serie A
Referee: M Irrati
Spezia
S T U T U
1–4
Full-time
Napoli
S U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spezia Napoli
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
0,8
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
3,2
3,0
Scored
1,2
2,0
Conceded
2,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+1,0
This season — Serie A · 34/34 matches
Win Ø 43%
24%
62%
Points per game
1,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 64%
71%
56%
Both score Ø 61%
68%
53%
Average goals
3,1
3,3
Scored
1,3
2,2
Conceded
1,9
1,1
Goal diff per game
-0,6
+1,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

49% Possession 51%
6 Shots 13
3 Shots on target 7
5 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 1
1 Corners 2
1 Offside 4
15 Free kicks against 18
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Spezia 16. · Napoli 5.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Inter 34 25 7 2 +45 82
2 Atalanta 34 20 9 5 +39 69
3 Juventus 34 20 9 5 +36 69
4 Milan 34 21 6 7 +21 69
5 Napoli 34 21 4 9 +36 67
6 Lazio 33 20 4 9 +11 64
7 Roma 34 16 7 11 +5 55
8 Sassuolo 34 14 11 9 +5 53
9 Sampdoria 34 13 6 15 -2 45
10 Verona 34 11 9 14 -1 42
11 Udinese 34 10 9 15 -7 39
12 Bologna 34 10 9 15 -9 39
13 Genoa 34 8 12 14 -12 36
14 Fiorentina 34 8 11 15 -12 35
15 Torino 33 7 13 13 -9 34
16 Spezia 34 8 10 16 -20 34
17 Cagliari 34 8 8 18 -17 32
18 Benevento 34 7 10 17 -31 31
19 Parma 34 3 11 20 -35 20
20 Crotone 34 5 3 26 -43 18

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

6. Jan -21 Napoli – Spezia 1–2

Match report

Spezia Napoli
6′
🟨 Elseid Hysaj
15′
P. Zieliński 0–1
G. Di Lorenzo
23′
V. Osimhen 0–2
P. Zieliński
Matteo Ricci 🟨
34′
44′
V. Osimhen 0–3
L. Insigne
Half-time 0–3
R. Piccoli 🔁
↦ D. Verde
46′
Nahuel Estévez 🟨
58′
Luca Vignali 🟨
62′
1–3 R. Piccoli
64′
65′
🟨 Victor Osimhen
Diego Farias 🔁
↦ E. Gyasi
68′
69′
🔁 Mário Rui
↦ E. Hysaj
69′
🔁 D. Mertens
↦ P. Zieliński
76′
🔁 E. Elmas
↦ D. Mertens
76′
🔁 H. Lozano
↦ M. Politano
G. Acampora 🔁
↦ N. Estévez
78′
R. Saponara 🔁
↦ K. Agudelo
78′
79′
H. Lozano 1–4
V. Osimhen
80′
ℹ️ Hirving Lozano
VAR: Penalty confirmed
84′
🔁 A. Petagna
↦ V. Osimhen
Full-time 1–4

Line-ups

Spezia

4-3-3
94 I. Provedel G
5 R. Marchizza D
69 L. Vignali D
22 J. Chabot D
34 A. Ismajli D
8 M. Ricci M
24 N. Estévez M
25 G. Maggiore M
80 K. Agudelo F
11 E. Gyasi F
31 D. Verde F
Bench (12)
91 R. Piccoli
17 Diego Farias
4 G. Acampora
23 R. Saponara
21 Salvador Ferrer
9 A. Galabinov
10 L. Agoume
20 S. Bastoni
26 T. Pobega
19 C. Terzi
1 J. Zoet
28 M. Erlić

Coach: V. Italiano

Napoli

4-4-2
1 A. Meret G
44 K. Manolas D
23 E. Hysaj D
22 G. Di Lorenzo D
33 A. Rrahmani D
4 D. Demme M
20 P. Zieliński F
8 Fabián Ruiz M
24 L. Insigne M
21 M. Politano M
9 V. Osimhen F
Bench (12)
6 Mário Rui
14 D. Mertens
7 E. Elmas
11 H. Lozano
37 A. Petagna
25 D. Ospina
38 D. Costanzo
56 G. D'Agostino
5 T. Bakayoko
3 K. Zedadka
16 N. Contini Baranovsky
61 V. Labriola

Coach: G. Gattuso

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
6,06
U
4,59
B ✓
1,51
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,53
U2,5
2,49
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

M Irrati · 54 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.