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Serie A

Referee: G Manganiello

Genoa

S U T T U

2–0

Full-time

Spezia

S T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Genoa Spezia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

3,0

3,7

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,7

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,7

This season — Serie A · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 24%

22%

25%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

53%

75%

Both score Ø 66%

63%

69%

Average goals

2,6

3,2

Scored

1,1

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

34% Possession 66%

11 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 1

1 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

0 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

18 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Genoa 14. · Spezia 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	32	23	7	2	+42	76
2	Milan	32	20	6	6	+22	66
3	Juventus	32	19	8	5	+35	65
4	Atalanta	32	19	8	5	+34	65
5	Napoli	32	20	3	9	+34	63
6	Lazio	31	18	4	9	+7	58
7	Roma	32	16	7	9	+8	55
8	Sassuolo	32	13	10	9	+4	49
9	Sampdoria	32	12	6	14	-3	42
10	Verona	32	11	8	13	+0	41
11	Bologna	32	10	8	14	-4	38
12	Udinese	32	9	9	14	-8	36
13	Fiorentina	32	8	9	15	-12	33
14	Genoa	32	7	12	13	-13	33
15	Spezia	32	8	9	15	-18	33
16	Torino	31	6	13	12	-8	31
17	Benevento	32	7	10	15	-27	31
18	Cagliari	32	7	7	18	-18	28
19	Parma	32	3	11	18	-33	20
20	Crotone	32	4	3	25	-42	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	17	13	2	2	+24	41
2	Inter	15	13	1	1	+24	40
3	Roma	17	11	4	2	+17	37
4	Napoli	16	11	2	3	+26	35
5	Atalanta	16	10	3	3	+20	33
6	Lazio	15	10	2	3	+8	32
7	Milan	17	7	5	5	+5	26
8	Bologna	16	7	4	5	+5	25
9	Sampdoria	16	7	2	7	+1	23
10	Sassuolo	15	5	7	3	+3	22
11	Verona	16	6	3	7	+0	21
12	Fiorentina	16	5	5	6	+0	20
13	Genoa	16	4	7	5	-1	19
14	Udinese	16	5	3	8	-3	18
15	Spezia	16	4	6	6	-5	18
16	Cagliari	16	4	3	9	-10	15
17	Torino	15	2	8	5	-3	14
18	Crotone	16	4	1	11	-11	13
19	Benevento	16	2	6	8	-16	12
20	Parma	16	2	5	9	-17	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	15	13	1	1	+17	40
2	Inter	17	10	6	1	+18	36
3	Atalanta	16	9	5	2	+14	32
4	Napoli	16	9	1	6	+8	28
5	Sassuolo	17	8	3	6	+1	27
6	Lazio	16	8	2	6	-1	26
7	Juventus	15	6	6	3	+11	24
8	Verona	16	5	5	6	+0	20
9	Sampdoria	16	5	4	7	-4	19
10	Benevento	16	5	4	7	-11	19
11	Udinese	16	4	6	6	-5	18
12	Roma	15	5	3	7	-9	18
13	Torino	16	4	5	7	-5	17
14	Spezia	16	4	3	9	-13	15
15	Genoa	16	3	5	8	-12	14
16	Cagliari	16	3	4	9	-8	13
17	Bologna	16	3	4	9	-9	13
18	Fiorentina	16	3	4	9	-12	13
19	Parma	16	1	6	9	-16	9
20	Crotone	16	0	2	14	-31	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.