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Serie A

Referee: S Sozza

Spezia

T U T S T

3–2

Full-time

Crotone

T S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spezia Crotone

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,2

5,2

Scored

1,2

2,0

Conceded

2,0

3,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,2

This season — Serie A · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 19%

24%

14%

Points per game

1,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 76%

76%

Both score Ø 66%

66%

Average goals

3,1

3,8

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,8

2,6

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

60% Possession 40%

9 Shots 9

7 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 4

3 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spezia 16. · Crotone 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	29	22	5	2	+41	71
2	Milan	29	18	6	5	+20	60
3	Juventus	29	17	8	4	+32	59
4	Atalanta	29	17	7	5	+32	58
5	Napoli	29	18	2	9	+29	56
6	Lazio	28	16	4	8	+7	52
7	Roma	29	15	6	8	+9	51
8	Verona	29	11	8	10	+4	41
9	Sassuolo	29	10	10	9	+0	40
10	Sampdoria	29	10	6	13	-4	36
11	Bologna	29	9	7	13	-6	34
12	Udinese	29	8	9	12	-7	33
13	Genoa	29	7	11	11	-10	32
14	Fiorentina	29	7	9	13	-10	30
15	Benevento	29	7	9	13	-24	30
16	Spezia	29	7	8	14	-16	29
17	Torino	28	4	12	12	-11	24
18	Cagliari	29	5	7	17	-19	22
19	Parma	29	3	11	15	-28	20
20	Crotone	29	4	3	22	-39	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	14	12	1	1	+23	37
2	Juventus	15	11	2	2	+20	35
3	Roma	15	10	3	2	+16	33
4	Napoli	14	10	1	3	+23	31
5	Atalanta	15	9	3	3	+19	30
6	Lazio	14	9	2	3	+6	29
7	Milan	15	6	5	4	+5	23
8	Bologna	14	6	3	5	+2	21
9	Verona	14	6	3	5	+2	21
10	Sampdoria	14	6	2	6	+1	20
11	Fiorentina	15	5	5	5	+1	20
12	Sassuolo	14	4	7	3	+1	19
13	Genoa	15	4	6	5	-1	18
14	Udinese	14	5	3	6	-1	18
15	Spezia	14	3	5	6	-6	14
16	Crotone	14	4	1	9	-9	13
17	Cagliari	15	3	3	9	-11	12
18	Benevento	15	2	6	7	-15	12
19	Torino	14	1	8	5	-5	11
20	Parma	15	2	5	8	-15	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	14	12	1	1	+15	37
2	Inter	15	10	4	1	+18	34
3	Atalanta	14	8	4	2	+13	28
4	Napoli	15	8	1	6	+6	25
5	Juventus	14	6	6	2	+12	24
6	Lazio	14	7	2	5	+1	23
7	Sassuolo	15	6	3	6	-1	21
8	Verona	15	5	5	5	+2	20
9	Roma	14	5	3	6	-7	18
10	Benevento	14	5	3	6	-9	18
11	Sampdoria	15	4	4	7	-5	16
12	Udinese	15	3	6	6	-6	15
13	Spezia	15	4	3	8	-10	15
14	Genoa	14	3	5	6	-9	14
15	Torino	14	3	4	7	-6	13
16	Bologna	15	3	4	8	-8	13
17	Cagliari	14	2	4	8	-8	10
18	Fiorentina	14	2	4	8	-11	10
19	Parma	14	1	6	7	-13	9
20	Crotone	15	0	2	13	-30	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.