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Serie A

Referee: F Maresca

Fiorentina

T T S U U

2–0

Full-time

Lazio

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Lazio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

1,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

3,7

4,8

Scored

1,7

2,8

Conceded

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,8

This season — Serie A · 34/33 matches

Win Ø 43%

24%

61%

Points per game

1,0

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

56%

61%

Both score Ø 63%

62%

64%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

29% Possession 71%

9 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 7

0 Offside 4

12 Free kicks against 14

4 Yellow cards 8

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Fiorentina 14. · Lazio 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	35	26	7	2	+49	85
2	Napoli	35	22	4	9	+39	70
3	Atalanta	34	20	9	5	+39	69
4	Juventus	34	20	9	5	+36	69
5	Milan	34	21	6	7	+21	69
6	Lazio	33	20	4	9	+11	64
7	Roma	34	16	7	11	+5	55
8	Sassuolo	34	14	11	9	+5	53
9	Sampdoria	35	13	6	16	-6	45
10	Verona	34	11	9	14	-1	42
11	Udinese	35	10	10	15	-7	40
12	Bologna	35	10	10	15	-9	40
13	Genoa	34	8	12	14	-12	36
14	Fiorentina	34	8	11	15	-12	35
15	Torino	33	7	13	13	-9	34
16	Spezia	35	8	10	17	-23	34
17	Cagliari	34	8	8	18	-17	32
18	Benevento	34	7	10	17	-31	31
19	Parma	34	3	11	20	-35	20
20	Crotone	34	5	3	26	-43	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	17	15	1	1	+29	46
2	Juventus	17	13	2	2	+24	41
3	Lazio	17	12	2	3	+12	38
4	Roma	17	11	4	2	+17	37
5	Napoli	17	11	3	3	+26	36
6	Atalanta	17	11	3	3	+25	36
7	Milan	18	8	5	5	+7	29
8	Bologna	17	7	5	5	+5	26
9	Sassuolo	17	6	8	3	+4	26
10	Sampdoria	17	8	2	7	+3	26
11	Genoa	17	5	7	5	+1	22
12	Verona	17	6	4	7	+0	22
13	Fiorentina	17	5	6	6	+0	21
14	Udinese	18	5	4	9	-4	19
15	Spezia	17	4	6	7	-8	18
16	Cagliari	17	5	3	9	-9	18
17	Torino	17	3	8	6	-4	17
18	Crotone	17	4	1	12	-13	13
19	Benevento	17	2	6	9	-18	12
20	Parma	17	2	5	10	-18	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	16	13	1	2	+14	40
2	Inter	18	11	6	1	+20	39
3	Napoli	18	11	1	6	+13	34
4	Atalanta	17	9	6	2	+14	33
5	Juventus	17	7	7	3	+12	28
6	Sassuolo	17	8	3	6	+1	27
7	Lazio	16	8	2	6	-1	26
8	Udinese	17	5	6	6	-3	21
9	Verona	17	5	5	7	-1	20
10	Sampdoria	18	5	4	9	-9	19
11	Benevento	17	5	4	8	-13	19
12	Roma	17	5	3	9	-12	18
13	Torino	16	4	5	7	-5	17
14	Spezia	18	4	4	10	-15	16
15	Cagliari	17	3	5	9	-8	14
16	Fiorentina	17	3	5	9	-12	14
17	Genoa	17	3	5	9	-13	14
18	Bologna	18	3	5	10	-14	14
19	Parma	17	1	6	10	-17	9
20	Crotone	17	1	2	14	-30	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.