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Serie A
Referee: F Dionisi
Bologna
T T S U T
3–3
Full-time
Fiorentina
U T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bologna Fiorentina
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,2
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 75%
50%
100%
Average goals
3,2
3,5
Scored
1,3
1,5
Conceded
1,8
2,0
Goal diff per game
-0,5
-0,5
This season — Serie A · 33/33 matches
Win Ø 27%
30%
24%
Points per game
1,2
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
52%
55%
Both score Ø 60%
58%
61%
Average goals
2,9
2,9
Scored
1,3
1,3
Conceded
1,6
1,6
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

63% Possession 37%
11 Shots 9
6 Shots on target 4
5 Blocked shots 2
0 Goalkeeper saves 3
3 Corners 5
2 Offside 1
16 Free kicks against 12
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Bologna 12. · Fiorentina 14.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Inter 34 25 7 2 +45 82
2 Milan 34 21 6 7 +21 69
3 Atalanta 33 20 8 5 +39 68
4 Napoli 33 21 3 9 +36 66
5 Juventus 33 19 9 5 +35 66
6 Lazio 33 20 4 9 +11 64
7 Roma 33 16 7 10 +7 55
8 Sassuolo 33 14 10 9 +5 52
9 Verona 34 11 9 14 -1 42
10 Sampdoria 33 12 6 15 -4 42
11 Udinese 33 10 9 14 -6 39
12 Bologna 33 10 8 15 -9 38
13 Genoa 34 8 12 14 -12 36
14 Fiorentina 33 8 10 15 -12 34
15 Spezia 34 8 10 16 -20 34
16 Torino 32 6 13 13 -10 31
17 Cagliari 33 8 7 18 -17 31
18 Benevento 34 7 10 17 -31 31
19 Parma 33 3 11 19 -34 20
20 Crotone 34 5 3 26 -43 18

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Bologna Fiorentina
Adama Soumaoro 🟨
20′
22′
D. Vlahović 0–1
1–1 R. Palacio
E. Vignato
31′
Half-time 1–1
Mattias Svanberg 🟨
47′
64′
G. Bonaventura 1–2
L. Venuti
68′
🔁 Igor
↦ C. Biraghi
2–2 R. Palacio
E. Vignato
71′
73′
D. Vlahović 2–3
E. Pulgar
75′
🟨 Nikola Milenković
A. Olsen 🔁
↦ T. Tomiyasu
76′
77′
🔁 C. Kouamé
↦ F. Ribéry
79′
🟨 Igor Júlio
83′
🔁 G. Castrovilli
↦ G. Bonaventura
3–3 R. Palacio
E. Vignato
84′
M. Juwara 🔁
↦ E. Vignato
90′
Full-time 3–3

Line-ups

Bologna

3-4-2-1
28 Ł. Skorupski G
29 L. De Silvestri M
23 Danilo D
5 A. Soumaoro D
14 T. Tomiyasu D
21 R. Soriano M
32 M. Svanberg M
24 R. Palacio F
7 R. Orsolini M
55 E. Vignato F
99 M. Barrow F
Bench (12)
11 A. Olsen
80 M. Juwara
82 K. Urbański
6 W. Amey
34 F. Ravaglia
1 Angelo da Costa
26 V. Antov
15 I. M'baye
43 P. Faragò
16 A. Poli
19 S. Rabbi
18 A. Baldursson

Coach: S. Mihajlović

Fiorentina

3-5-2
69 B. Drągowski G
22 M. Cáceres D
3 C. Biraghi M
20 G. Pezzella D
23 L. Venuti M
4 N. Milenković D
7 F. Ribéry F
5 G. Bonaventura M
78 E. Pulgar M
34 S. Amrabat M
9 D. Vlahović F
Bench (12)
98 Igor
11 C. Kouamé
10 G. Castrovilli
21 A. Rosati
28 Tòfol Montiel
77 José Callejón
2 L. Martínez
27 A. Barreca
25 K. Malcuit
92 V. Eysseric
1 P. Terracciano
15 M. Olivera

Coach: G. Iachini

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,94
U ✓
3,28
B
2,49
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,79
U2,5
2,04
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

F Dionisi · 77 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
29,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.