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Serie A

Referee: L Pairetto

Spezia

T S U T T

3–4

Full-time

Lazio

T S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spezia Lazio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,2

This season — Serie A · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 37%

26%

47%

Points per game

1,0

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

56%

76%

Both score Ø 59%

56%

62%

Average goals

2,7

3,4

Scored

1,0

1,9

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

29% Possession 71%

9 Shots 22

3 Shots on target 9

3 Blocked shots 4

6 Goalkeeper saves 0

4 Corners 5

3 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spezia 16. · Lazio 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	34	22	8	4	+30	74
2	Inter	34	21	9	4	+44	72
3	Napoli	35	21	7	7	+36	70
4	Juventus	34	19	9	6	+22	66
5	Roma	34	17	7	10	+15	58
6	Lazio	34	16	8	10	+16	56
7	Fiorentina	34	17	5	12	+8	56
8	Atalanta	34	15	10	9	+18	55
9	Verona	35	14	10	11	+9	52
10	Sassuolo	35	12	10	13	-1	46
11	Torino	34	11	11	12	+6	44
12	Udinese	34	10	13	11	+1	43
13	Bologna	34	11	9	14	-9	42
14	Empoli	34	9	10	15	-17	37
15	Sampdoria	35	9	6	20	-15	33
16	Spezia	34	9	6	19	-25	33
17	Cagliari	35	6	10	19	-32	28
18	Genoa	35	3	16	16	-30	25
19	Salernitana	33	6	7	20	-42	25
20	Venezia	33	5	7	21	-34	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	17	12	3	2	+27	39
2	Fiorentina	17	11	2	4	+14	35
3	Milan	17	10	4	3	+13	34
4	Roma	17	10	4	3	+10	34
5	Napoli	18	10	3	5	+18	33
6	Lazio	17	9	5	3	+15	32
7	Juventus	17	9	4	4	+10	31
8	Verona	17	9	3	5	+12	30
9	Torino	17	8	5	4	+12	29
10	Bologna	18	8	4	6	+3	28
11	Udinese	17	6	7	4	+4	25
12	Sassuolo	17	6	5	6	+0	23
13	Atalanta	17	4	7	6	+3	19
14	Spezia	16	5	3	8	-3	18
15	Sampdoria	18	5	3	10	-6	18
16	Empoli	17	4	4	9	-14	16
17	Cagliari	18	3	6	9	-11	15
18	Genoa	17	2	8	7	-11	14
19	Salernitana	16	2	5	9	-19	11
20	Venezia	17	2	4	11	-18	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	17	12	4	1	+17	40
2	Napoli	17	11	4	2	+18	37
3	Atalanta	17	11	3	3	+15	36
4	Juventus	17	10	5	2	+12	35
5	Inter	17	9	6	2	+17	33
6	Roma	17	7	3	7	+5	24
7	Lazio	17	7	3	7	+1	24
8	Sassuolo	18	6	5	7	-1	23
9	Verona	18	5	7	6	-3	22
10	Empoli	17	5	6	6	-3	21
11	Fiorentina	17	6	3	8	-6	21
12	Udinese	17	4	6	7	-3	18
13	Torino	17	3	6	8	-6	15
14	Sampdoria	17	4	3	10	-9	15
15	Spezia	18	4	3	11	-22	15
16	Bologna	16	3	5	8	-12	14
17	Salernitana	17	4	2	11	-23	14
18	Cagliari	17	3	4	10	-21	13
19	Venezia	16	3	3	10	-16	12
20	Genoa	18	1	8	9	-19	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.