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Premier League

Referee: T Bramall

Crystal Palace

U T T S S

2–0

Full-time

Newcastle

T S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Crystal Palace Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

3,5

Scored

1,7

2,0

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 33/32 matches

Win Ø 37%

27%

47%

Points per game

1,1

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

55%

72%

Both score Ø 60%

64%

56%

Average goals

3,0

3,8

Scored

1,3

2,2

Conceded

1,7

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,89 xG 0,36

47% Possession 53%

20 Shots 7

7 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 2

5 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Crystal Palace 15. · Newcastle 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	34	24	5	5	+56	+44.4	77
2	Liverpool	33	22	8	3	+43	+36.4	74
3	Man City	32	22	7	3	+44	+37.5	73
4	Aston Villa	34	20	6	8	+21	+7.0	66
5	Tottenham	32	18	6	8	+16	+2.2	60
6	Newcastle	32	15	5	12	+17	+7.6	50
7	Man United	32	15	5	12	-1	-12.2	50
8	West Ham	34	13	9	12	-9	-16.0	48
9	Chelsea	32	13	8	11	+4	+12.6	47
10	Bournemouth	34	12	9	13	-11	-1.0	45
11	Brighton	32	11	11	10	+2	+1.5	44
12	Wolves	34	12	7	15	-8	-13.3	43
13	Fulham	34	12	6	16	-4	-9.3	42
14	Everton	33	10	8	15	-14	-0.4	38
15	Crystal Palace	33	9	9	15	-14	-8.1	36
16	Brentford	34	9	8	17	-7	+5.6	35
17	Nott'm Forest	34	7	9	18	-18	-4.4	30
18	Luton	34	6	7	21	-28	-33.4	25
19	Burnley	34	5	8	21	-32	-25.3	23
20	Sheffield United	33	3	7	23	-57	-31.5	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	17	13	3	1	+28	+31.6	42
2	Man City	17	12	5	0	+29	+22.4	41
3	Arsenal	17	13	2	2	+28	+25.6	41
4	Aston Villa	17	12	2	3	+20	+12.2	38
5	Newcastle	17	11	3	3	+23	+19.4	36
6	Tottenham	16	12	0	4	+13	+7.7	36
7	Fulham	17	9	1	7	+11	+2.8	28
8	Chelsea	16	8	4	4	+10	+16.8	28
9	Brighton	15	7	6	2	+9	+5.2	27
10	Man United	15	8	2	5	+1	-0.3	26
11	West Ham	17	6	7	4	+1	-5.5	25
12	Bournemouth	17	6	6	5	-3	+2.5	24
13	Wolves	17	7	3	7	-3	-6.9	24
14	Brentford	17	5	6	6	-3	+4.8	21
15	Nott'm Forest	17	5	5	7	+0	+1.9	20
16	Crystal Palace	16	5	4	7	+0	+2.9	19
17	Everton	16	5	4	7	+0	+8.8	19
18	Luton	17	4	3	10	-7	-5.6	15
19	Burnley	17	2	4	11	-20	-4.1	10
20	Sheffield United	17	2	4	11	-33	-12.2	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	17	11	3	3	+28	+18.8	36
2	Man City	15	10	2	3	+15	+15.2	32
3	Liverpool	16	9	5	2	+15	+4.8	32
4	Aston Villa	17	8	4	5	+1	-5.2	28
5	Tottenham	16	6	6	4	+3	-5.5	24
6	Man United	17	7	3	7	-2	-11.9	24
7	West Ham	17	7	2	8	-10	-10.6	23
8	Bournemouth	17	6	3	8	-8	-3.6	21
9	Wolves	17	5	4	8	-5	-6.3	19
10	Chelsea	16	5	4	7	-6	-4.2	19
11	Everton	17	5	4	8	-14	-9.2	19
12	Brighton	17	4	5	8	-7	-3.7	17
13	Crystal Palace	17	4	5	8	-14	-11.0	17
14	Brentford	17	4	2	11	-4	+0.8	14
15	Newcastle	15	4	2	9	-6	-11.8	14
16	Fulham	17	3	5	9	-15	-12.1	14
17	Burnley	17	3	4	10	-12	-21.2	13
18	Nott'm Forest	17	2	4	11	-18	-6.3	10
19	Luton	17	2	4	11	-21	-27.8	10
20	Sheffield United	16	1	3	12	-24	-19.3	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.