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Premier League

Referee: Kevin Friend

Man United

U S S U T

4–1

Full-time

Newcastle

U S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,3

2,2

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 36%

33%

39%

Points per game

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

44%

39%

Both score Ø 56%

67%

44%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,4

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

73% Possession 27%

22 Shots 7

10 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

5 Corners 0

1 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 9. · Newcastle 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	17	16	1	0	+28	49
2	Leicester	18	12	3	3	+27	39
3	Man City	18	12	2	4	+30	38
4	Chelsea	19	10	2	7	+6	32
5	Tottenham	19	8	5	6	+7	29
6	Sheffield United	19	7	8	4	+6	29
7	Wolves	18	6	9	3	+4	27
8	Crystal Palace	19	7	5	7	-4	26
9	Man United	18	6	7	5	+4	25
10	Newcastle	18	7	4	7	-6	25
11	Arsenal	19	5	9	5	-3	24
12	Burnley	19	7	3	9	-7	24
13	Everton	19	6	4	9	-8	22
14	Southampton	19	6	3	10	-14	21
15	Brighton	19	5	5	9	-6	20
16	Bournemouth	19	5	5	9	-6	20
17	West Ham	18	5	4	9	-10	19
18	Aston Villa	19	5	3	11	-8	18
19	Watford	19	2	7	10	-21	13
20	Norwich	19	3	3	13	-19	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	9	9	0	0	+17	27
2	Leicester	9	7	2	0	+14	23
3	Tottenham	10	6	2	2	+11	20
4	Man City	9	6	1	2	+16	19
5	Everton	10	5	2	3	+1	17
6	Man United	9	4	4	1	+7	16
7	Newcastle	9	4	4	1	+3	16
8	Burnley	9	5	0	4	+0	15
9	Crystal Palace	10	4	3	3	+0	15
10	Sheffield United	10	4	2	4	+2	14
11	Chelsea	10	4	2	4	+1	14
12	Aston Villa	10	4	2	4	-1	14
13	Wolves	9	3	4	2	+1	13
14	Arsenal	9	3	4	2	-1	13
15	Brighton	9	3	3	3	+1	12
16	Bournemouth	10	2	4	4	-4	10
17	West Ham	8	2	1	5	-6	7
18	Watford	9	1	4	4	-7	7
19	Norwich	9	2	1	6	-8	7
20	Southampton	9	2	1	6	-15	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	8	7	1	0	+11	22
2	Man City	9	6	1	2	+14	19
3	Chelsea	9	6	0	3	+5	18
4	Leicester	9	5	1	3	+13	16
5	Sheffield United	9	3	6	0	+4	15
6	Wolves	9	3	5	1	+3	14
7	Southampton	10	4	2	4	+1	14
8	West Ham	10	3	3	4	-4	12
9	Arsenal	10	2	5	3	-2	11
10	Crystal Palace	9	3	2	4	-4	11
11	Bournemouth	9	3	1	5	-2	10
12	Man United	9	2	3	4	-3	9
13	Tottenham	9	2	3	4	-4	9
14	Burnley	10	2	3	5	-7	9
15	Newcastle	9	3	0	6	-9	9
16	Brighton	10	2	2	6	-7	8
17	Watford	10	1	3	6	-14	6
18	Everton	9	1	2	6	-9	5
19	Norwich	10	1	2	7	-11	5
20	Aston Villa	9	1	1	7	-7	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.