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Premier League

Referee: Jonathan Moss

Chelsea

T S T T S

0–2

Full-time

Southampton

S S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,3

This season — Premier League · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 42%

56%

28%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

61%

72%

Both score Ø 67%

61%

72%

Average goals

3,2

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

1,4

2,1

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

66% Possession 34%

10 Shots 5

3 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 1

1 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 4. · Southampton 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	17	16	1	0	+28	49
2	Leicester	18	12	3	3	+27	39
3	Man City	18	12	2	4	+30	38
4	Chelsea	18	10	2	6	+8	32
5	Tottenham	19	8	5	6	+7	29
6	Sheffield United	18	7	7	4	+6	28
7	Wolves	18	6	9	3	+4	27
8	Man United	18	6	7	5	+4	25
9	Newcastle	18	7	4	7	-6	25
10	Burnley	18	7	3	8	-6	24
11	Arsenal	18	5	8	5	-3	23
12	Crystal Palace	18	6	5	7	-5	23
13	Brighton	19	5	5	9	-6	20
14	Bournemouth	18	5	4	9	-6	19
15	Everton	18	5	4	9	-9	19
16	West Ham	17	5	4	8	-9	19
17	Southampton	18	5	3	10	-16	18
18	Aston Villa	18	4	3	11	-9	15
19	Norwich	18	3	3	12	-18	12
20	Watford	18	2	6	10	-21	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	9	9	0	0	+17	27
2	Leicester	9	7	2	0	+14	23
3	Tottenham	10	6	2	2	+11	20
4	Man City	9	6	1	2	+16	19
5	Man United	9	4	4	1	+7	16
6	Newcastle	9	4	4	1	+3	16
7	Burnley	9	5	0	4	+0	15
8	Chelsea	9	4	2	3	+3	14
9	Everton	9	4	2	3	+0	14
10	Sheffield United	9	4	1	4	+2	13
11	Wolves	9	3	4	2	+1	13
12	Arsenal	9	3	4	2	-1	13
13	Brighton	9	3	3	3	+1	12
14	Crystal Palace	9	3	3	3	-1	12
15	Aston Villa	9	3	2	4	-2	11
16	Bournemouth	9	2	3	4	-4	9
17	West Ham	8	2	1	5	-6	7
18	Watford	9	1	4	4	-7	7
19	Norwich	9	2	1	6	-8	7
20	Southampton	9	2	1	6	-15	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	8	7	1	0	+11	22
2	Man City	9	6	1	2	+14	19
3	Chelsea	9	6	0	3	+5	18
4	Leicester	9	5	1	3	+13	16
5	Sheffield United	9	3	6	0	+4	15
6	Wolves	9	3	5	1	+3	14
7	West Ham	9	3	3	3	-3	12
8	Southampton	9	3	2	4	-1	11
9	Crystal Palace	9	3	2	4	-4	11
10	Arsenal	9	2	4	3	-2	10
11	Bournemouth	9	3	1	5	-2	10
12	Man United	9	2	3	4	-3	9
13	Tottenham	9	2	3	4	-4	9
14	Burnley	9	2	3	4	-6	9
15	Newcastle	9	3	0	6	-9	9
16	Brighton	10	2	2	6	-7	8
17	Everton	9	1	2	6	-9	5
18	Norwich	9	1	2	6	-10	5
19	Watford	9	1	2	6	-14	5
20	Aston Villa	9	1	1	7	-7	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.