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Premier League

Referee: Craig Pawson

Man United

S U T S T

4–1

Full-time

Newcastle

U U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

1,7

Scored

1,2

0,7

Conceded

0,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,3

This season — Premier League · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 50%

64%

36%

Points per game

2,1

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

55%

27%

Both score Ø 23%

18%

27%

Average goals

2,5

1,8

Scored

2,1

0,9

Conceded

0,5

0,9

Goal diff per game

+1,6

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

64% Possession 36%

16 Shots 12

7 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

11 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 3. · Newcastle 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	12	11	1	0	+33	34
2	Chelsea	12	8	1	3	+13	25
3	Man United	11	7	2	2	+18	23
4	Tottenham	12	7	2	3	+11	23
5	Liverpool	12	6	4	2	+7	22
6	Arsenal	12	7	1	4	+6	22
7	Burnley	12	6	4	2	+3	22
8	Brighton	11	4	3	4	+0	15
9	Watford	11	4	3	4	-4	15
10	Huddersfield	12	4	3	5	-9	15
11	Newcastle	11	4	2	5	+0	14
12	Leicester	12	3	4	5	-2	13
13	Bournemouth	12	4	1	7	-3	13
14	Southampton	12	3	4	5	-5	13
15	Stoke	11	3	3	5	-9	12
16	Everton	12	3	3	6	-12	12
17	West Brom	12	2	4	6	-9	10
18	West Ham	11	2	3	6	-12	9
19	Swansea	12	2	2	8	-8	8
20	Crystal Palace	12	1	2	9	-18	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	6	6	0	0	+11	18
2	Man City	6	5	1	0	+20	16
3	Man United	5	5	0	0	+15	15
4	Liverpool	6	4	2	0	+11	14
5	Tottenham	6	3	2	1	+4	11
6	Burnley	6	3	2	1	+3	11
7	Huddersfield	6	3	2	1	-1	11
8	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	+3	10
9	Newcastle	6	3	1	2	+2	10
10	Everton	6	3	0	3	-4	9
11	Brighton	5	2	2	1	+1	8
12	Southampton	7	2	2	3	-2	8
13	Stoke	6	2	2	2	-3	8
14	Bournemouth	6	2	1	3	+1	7
15	Leicester	6	2	1	3	+0	7
16	West Ham	5	2	0	3	-4	6
17	West Brom	6	1	3	2	-4	6
18	Crystal Palace	6	1	2	3	-5	5
19	Watford	5	1	2	2	-6	5
20	Swansea	6	1	0	5	-6	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	6	6	0	0	+13	18
2	Chelsea	6	5	0	1	+10	15
3	Tottenham	6	4	0	2	+7	12
4	Burnley	6	3	2	1	+0	11
5	Watford	6	3	1	2	+2	10
6	Man United	6	2	2	2	+3	8
7	Liverpool	6	2	2	2	-4	8
8	Brighton	6	2	1	3	-1	7
9	Leicester	6	1	3	2	-2	6
10	Bournemouth	6	2	0	4	-4	6
11	Swansea	6	1	2	3	-2	5
12	Southampton	5	1	2	2	-3	5
13	Newcastle	5	1	1	3	-2	4
14	Arsenal	6	1	1	4	-5	4
15	West Brom	6	1	1	4	-5	4
16	Stoke	5	1	1	3	-6	4
17	Huddersfield	6	1	1	4	-8	4
18	West Ham	6	0	3	3	-8	3
19	Everton	6	0	3	3	-8	3
20	Crystal Palace	6	0	0	6	-13	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.