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Premier League
Referee: Tim Robinson
Burnley
S S T T T
1–0
Full-time
Newcastle
S T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Newcastle
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,0
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
17%
67%
Average goals
3,5
3,2
Scored
1,2
1,8
Conceded
2,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
-1,2
+0,5
This season — Premier League · 16/16 matches
Win Ø 35%
31%
38%
Points per game
1,1
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 57%
69%
44%
Both score Ø 47%
44%
50%
Average goals
3,1
2,5
Scored
1,3
1,1
Conceded
1,8
1,4
Goal diff per game
-0,5
-0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

48% Possession 52%
7 Shots 9
4 Shots on target 0
1 Blocked shots 2
0 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 3
3 Offside 1
15 Free kicks against 12
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Burnley 13. · Newcastle 11.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Liverpool 17 16 1 0 +28 49
2 Leicester 16 12 2 2 +29 38
3 Man City 16 10 2 4 +25 32
4 Chelsea 16 9 2 5 +7 29
5 Man United 16 6 6 4 +6 24
6 Wolves 16 5 9 2 +4 24
7 Tottenham 16 6 5 5 +7 23
8 Sheffield United 16 5 7 4 +3 22
9 Arsenal 16 5 7 4 +0 22
10 Crystal Palace 16 6 4 6 -4 22
11 Newcastle 16 6 4 6 -6 22
12 Brighton 16 5 4 7 -4 19
13 Burnley 16 5 3 8 -8 18
14 Everton 16 5 2 9 -9 17
15 Bournemouth 16 4 4 8 -6 16
16 West Ham 16 4 4 8 -10 16
17 Aston Villa 16 4 3 9 -5 15
18 Southampton 16 4 3 9 -17 15
19 Norwich 16 3 2 11 -17 11
20 Watford 17 1 6 10 -23 9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Burnley Newcastle
41′
🟨 Joelinton
Half-time 1–0
1–0 C. Wood
A. Westwood
58′
59′
🟨 Andy Carroll
71′
🔁 D. Gayle
↦ J. Willems
80′
🔁 Y. Muto
↦ C. Atsu
J. Rodriguez 🔁
↦ C. Wood
85′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Burnley

4-4-2
1 N. Pope G
23 E. Pieters D
26 P. Bardsley D
6 B. Mee D
5 J. Tarkowski D
4 J. Cork M
18 A. Westwood M
13 J. Hendrick M
10 A. Barnes F
9 C. Wood F
11 D. McNeil M
Bench (7)
19 J. Rodriguez
8 D. Drinkwater
12 R. Brady
2 M. Lowton
20 J. Hart
25 A. Lennon
27 M. Vydra

Coach: S. Dyche

Newcastle

5-4-1
1 M. Dúbravka G
18 F. Fernández D
5 F. Schär D
15 J. Willems D
3 P. Dummett D
19 Javi Manquillo D
30 C. Atsu M
14 I. Hayden M
36 S. Longstaff M
7 A. Carroll F
9 Joelinton M
Bench (7)
12 D. Gayle
13 Y. Muto
43 M. Longstaff
20 F. Lejeune
21 R. Elliot
17 E. Krafth
22 D. Yedlin

Coach: S. Bruce

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,96
U
3,50
B
4,07
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,11
U2,5 ✓
1,74
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Tim Robinson · 110 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.