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Serie A

Referee: D Ghersini

Sassuolo

U T S S S

1–0

Full-time

Spezia

T U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sassuolo Spezia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,3

3,0

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 26/25 matches

Win Ø 28%

35%

20%

Points per game

1,3

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

58%

56%

Both score Ø 49%

50%

48%

Average goals

2,8

2,6

Scored

1,3

0,9

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,01 xG 0,71

45% Possession 55%

15 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

3 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sassuolo 13. · Spezia 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	26	22	2	2	+44	+8.1	68
2	Juventus	26	16	5	5	+22	+5.4	53
3	Inter	26	16	2	8	+17	+9.0	50
4	Lazio	26	14	7	5	+22	+2.4	49
5	Milan	26	14	6	6	+10	+0.6	48
6	Roma	26	14	5	7	+10	+1.1	47
7	Atalanta	26	12	6	8	+12	+0.9	42
8	Torino	26	10	7	9	+0	+1.6	37
9	Bologna	26	10	6	10	-3	-0.8	36
10	Udinese	26	8	11	7	+4	-2.1	35
11	Fiorentina	26	9	7	10	+0	+3.7	34
12	Monza	26	9	6	11	-5	-2.4	33
13	Sassuolo	26	9	6	11	-6	+1.6	33
14	Empoli	26	6	10	10	-11	-3.9	28
15	Lecce	26	6	9	11	-7	-0.7	27
16	Salernitana	26	6	8	12	-16	-5.9	26
17	Spezia	25	5	8	12	-19	-6.3	23
18	Verona	25	4	6	15	-17	-2.0	18
19	Cremonese	26	1	9	16	-27	-4.8	12
20	Sampdoria	26	2	6	18	-30	-5.4	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	13	11	1	1	+24	+3.5	34
2	Juventus	14	10	3	1	+21	+4.0	33
3	Inter	13	11	0	2	+21	+3.6	33
4	Milan	13	9	2	2	+11	+3.0	29
5	Roma	13	8	1	4	+8	-2.3	25
6	Lazio	13	7	3	3	+10	+0.9	24
7	Bologna	14	6	5	3	+7	+1.2	23
8	Torino	12	5	4	3	+3	+3.1	19
9	Fiorentina	13	5	4	4	-1	+3.4	19
10	Atalanta	12	5	3	4	+7	+3.1	18
11	Monza	13	5	3	5	+3	-1.1	18
12	Sassuolo	12	5	2	5	+1	-0.3	17
13	Udinese	12	3	7	2	+5	+2.1	16
14	Empoli	13	4	4	5	-3	-2.7	16
15	Salernitana	13	4	3	6	-1	-4.0	15
16	Spezia	13	3	6	4	-5	-5.2	15
17	Verona	14	4	2	8	-7	-0.5	14
18	Lecce	13	2	6	5	-4	-0.6	12
19	Cremonese	13	1	3	9	-15	-2.4	6
20	Sampdoria	13	0	4	9	-15	-0.3	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	13	11	1	1	+20	+4.6	34
2	Lazio	13	7	4	2	+12	+1.5	25
3	Atalanta	14	7	3	4	+5	-2.3	24
4	Roma	13	6	4	3	+2	+3.4	22
5	Juventus	12	6	2	4	+1	+1.4	20
6	Udinese	14	5	4	5	-1	-4.2	19
7	Milan	13	5	4	4	-1	-2.4	19
8	Torino	14	5	3	6	-3	-1.6	18
9	Inter	13	5	2	6	-4	+5.4	17
10	Sassuolo	14	4	4	6	-7	+1.9	16
11	Fiorentina	13	4	3	6	+1	+0.3	15
12	Lecce	13	4	3	6	-3	-0.1	15
13	Monza	13	4	3	6	-8	-1.3	15
14	Bologna	12	4	1	7	-10	-2.0	13
15	Empoli	13	2	6	5	-8	-1.2	12
16	Salernitana	13	2	5	6	-15	-2.0	11
17	Spezia	12	2	2	8	-14	-1.1	8
18	Sampdoria	13	2	2	9	-15	-5.1	8
19	Cremonese	13	0	6	7	-12	-2.4	6
20	Verona	11	0	4	7	-10	-1.6	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.