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Serie A

Referee: M Di Bello

Spezia

U S T T T

0–3

Full-time

Napoli

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spezia Napoli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

0,8

2,2

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,3

This season — Serie A · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 53%

20%

85%

Points per game

0,9

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

50%

60%

Both score Ø 50%

45%

55%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

0,9

2,4

Conceded

1,6

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,42 xG 1,09

31% Possession 69%

9 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 6

1 Offside 4

19 Free kicks against 18

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spezia 17. · Napoli 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	20	17	2	1	+33	+1.2	53
2	Inter	20	13	1	6	+14	+2.0	40
3	Roma	21	12	4	5	+10	+1.0	40
4	Lazio	20	11	5	4	+20	+1.9	38
5	Atalanta	21	11	5	5	+15	-0.7	38
6	Juventus	20	11	5	4	+13	+1.3	38
7	Milan	20	11	5	4	+8	-3.1	38
8	Udinese	20	7	8	5	+6	+1.2	29
9	Torino	20	7	6	7	-1	-0.2	27
10	Bologna	20	7	5	8	-4	+0.5	26
11	Empoli	21	6	8	7	-7	-0.5	26
12	Monza	20	7	4	9	-3	-0.4	25
13	Fiorentina	20	6	6	8	-4	+1.1	24
14	Lecce	21	5	8	8	-3	+1.8	23
15	Sassuolo	21	6	5	10	-7	+1.6	23
16	Salernitana	20	5	6	9	-13	-1.5	21
17	Spezia	20	4	6	10	-15	-2.9	18
18	Verona	20	3	4	13	-14	-1.5	13
19	Sampdoria	20	2	3	15	-26	-1.1	9
20	Cremonese	21	0	8	13	-22	-1.7	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	10	9	1	0	+20	+0.2	28
2	Juventus	11	7	3	1	+16	+1.3	24
3	Inter	10	8	0	2	+16	+0.6	24
4	Milan	10	7	1	2	+8	-0.8	22
5	Lazio	11	6	3	2	+11	+1.9	21
6	Bologna	11	5	4	2	+7	+0.5	19
7	Roma	10	6	1	3	+7	-0.5	19
8	Atalanta	10	5	2	3	+8	+1.0	17
9	Empoli	10	4	3	3	+0	-0.4	15
10	Fiorentina	10	4	3	3	-1	+0.7	15
11	Udinese	10	3	5	2	+5	+1.2	14
12	Monza	10	4	2	4	+3	-0.0	14
13	Sassuolo	10	4	2	4	+2	+0.8	14
14	Salernitana	10	3	3	4	+1	-1.0	12
15	Torino	9	3	3	3	+1	–	12
16	Spezia	10	2	6	2	-1	-1.7	12
17	Lecce	10	2	5	3	-1	+0.6	11
18	Verona	10	3	0	7	-5	-0.3	9
19	Cremonese	11	0	3	8	-14	-2.3	3
20	Sampdoria	10	0	2	8	-14	-0.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	10	8	1	1	+13	+1.0	25
2	Atalanta	11	6	3	2	+7	-1.6	21
3	Roma	11	6	3	2	+3	+1.5	21
4	Lazio	9	5	2	2	+9	–	17
5	Milan	10	4	4	2	+0	-2.4	16
6	Inter	10	5	1	4	-2	+1.4	16
7	Udinese	10	4	3	3	+1	+0.1	15
8	Torino	11	4	3	4	-2	-0.2	15
9	Juventus	9	4	2	3	-3	–	14
10	Lecce	11	3	3	5	-2	+1.2	12
11	Monza	10	3	2	5	-6	-0.4	11
12	Empoli	11	2	5	4	-7	-0.1	11
13	Fiorentina	10	2	3	5	-3	+0.4	9
14	Sassuolo	11	2	3	6	-9	+0.8	9
15	Salernitana	10	2	3	5	-14	-0.6	9
16	Bologna	9	2	1	6	-11	–	7
17	Sampdoria	10	2	1	7	-12	-1.0	7
18	Spezia	10	2	0	8	-14	-1.1	6
19	Cremonese	10	0	5	5	-8	+0.6	5
20	Verona	10	0	4	6	-9	-1.2	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.