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Serie A

Referee: N Baroni

Lecce

T T S U S

0–1

Full-time

Sassuolo

U S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lecce Sassuolo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 26%

26%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

35%

57%

Both score Ø 57%

65%

48%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,1

Conceded

1,1

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,19 xG 1,10

41% Possession 59%

16 Shots 7

0 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

4 Corners 7

2 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lecce 13. · Sassuolo 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	24	21	2	1	+43	+6.4	65
2	Juventus	23	14	5	4	+19	+2.9	47
3	Inter	23	15	2	6	+17	+6.1	47
4	Roma	23	13	5	5	+11	+3.1	44
5	Milan	23	13	5	5	+9	-1.3	44
6	Lazio	23	12	6	5	+20	+2.1	42
7	Atalanta	23	12	5	6	+16	+2.4	41
8	Bologna	23	9	5	9	-3	-0.7	32
9	Torino	23	8	7	8	-1	+1.9	31
10	Udinese	23	7	9	7	+3	-1.2	30
11	Monza	23	8	5	10	-3	-1.6	29
12	Empoli	24	6	10	8	-9	-4.0	28
13	Lecce	23	6	9	8	-2	-1.0	27
14	Fiorentina	23	6	7	10	-6	+2.3	25
15	Sassuolo	23	6	6	11	-9	-0.2	24
16	Salernitana	23	5	6	12	-19	-5.9	21
17	Spezia	23	4	7	12	-20	-3.4	19
18	Verona	23	4	5	14	-14	-1.2	17
19	Sampdoria	23	2	5	16	-27	-1.8	11
20	Cremonese	23	0	9	14	-25	-4.9	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	11	10	1	0	+23	+1.8	31
2	Inter	12	10	0	2	+19	+3.3	30
3	Juventus	12	8	3	1	+17	+1.6	27
4	Milan	11	8	1	2	+9	-0.2	25
5	Roma	11	7	1	3	+8	-0.1	22
6	Lazio	12	6	3	3	+9	-0.2	21
7	Bologna	12	5	4	3	+6	+0.9	19
8	Atalanta	11	5	2	4	+7	+2.0	17
9	Torino	11	4	4	3	+2	+2.7	16
10	Fiorentina	12	4	4	4	-2	+2.2	16
11	Empoli	12	4	4	4	-2	-2.5	16
12	Udinese	11	3	6	2	+5	+2.1	15
13	Monza	12	4	3	5	+2	-0.8	15
14	Sassuolo	11	4	2	5	+0	-0.1	14
15	Verona	12	4	1	7	-4	+0.3	13
16	Lecce	11	2	6	3	-1	-1.1	12
17	Salernitana	12	3	3	6	-4	-5.0	12
18	Spezia	12	2	6	4	-6	-2.3	12
19	Cremonese	11	0	3	8	-14	-2.3	3
20	Sampdoria	12	0	3	9	-15	+0.1	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	13	11	1	1	+20	+4.6	34
2	Atalanta	12	7	3	2	+9	+0.4	24
3	Roma	12	6	4	2	+3	+3.2	22
4	Lazio	11	6	3	2	+11	+2.3	21
5	Juventus	11	6	2	3	+2	+1.3	20
6	Milan	12	5	4	3	+0	-1.2	19
7	Inter	11	5	2	4	-2	+2.7	17
8	Lecce	12	4	3	5	-1	+0.2	15
9	Udinese	12	4	3	5	-2	-3.3	15
10	Torino	12	4	3	5	-3	-0.8	15
11	Monza	11	4	2	5	-5	-0.8	14
12	Bologna	11	4	1	6	-9	-1.6	13
13	Empoli	12	2	6	4	-7	-1.5	12
14	Sassuolo	12	2	4	6	-9	-0.1	10
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-4	+0.1	9
16	Salernitana	11	2	3	6	-15	-0.9	9
17	Sampdoria	11	2	2	7	-12	-1.9	8
18	Spezia	11	2	1	8	-14	-1.1	7
19	Cremonese	12	0	6	6	-11	-2.5	6
20	Verona	11	0	4	7	-10	-1.6	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.