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Serie A

Referee: E Feliciani

Atalanta

T U T S S

4–1

Full-time

Salernitana

T U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Salernitana

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 27%

47%

Points per game

1,5

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

60%

Both score Ø 47%

47%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,6

0,7

Conceded

1,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,89 xG 1,32

52% Possession 48%

20 Shots 10

11 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

10 Corners 7

1 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 8. · Salernitana 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	16	13	2	1	+32	+22.0	41
2	Juventus	16	11	4	1	+14	+14.6	37
3	Milan	16	10	2	4	+11	+2.2	32
4	Bologna	16	7	7	2	+8	+4.9	28
5	Napoli	16	8	3	5	+9	+12.8	27
6	Fiorentina	16	8	3	5	+7	-3.0	27
7	Roma	16	7	4	5	+9	+7.0	25
8	Atalanta	15	7	2	6	+6	+4.5	23
9	Torino	16	6	5	5	-2	+0.0	23
10	Monza	16	5	6	5	-1	-3.9	21
11	Lazio	16	6	3	7	-2	+2.5	21
12	Lecce	16	4	8	4	-2	-9.5	20
13	Frosinone	16	5	4	7	-5	-5.6	19
14	Genoa	16	4	4	8	-5	-1.0	16
15	Sassuolo	16	4	4	8	-6	-5.5	16
16	Cagliari	16	3	4	9	-13	-6.1	13
17	Udinese	16	1	10	5	-13	-4.1	13
18	Empoli	16	3	3	10	-18	-7.0	12
19	Verona	16	2	5	9	-10	-7.9	11
20	Salernitana	15	1	5	9	-19	-17.0	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	8	6	2	0	+8	+9.2	20
2	Inter	8	6	1	1	+16	+13.5	19
3	Bologna	8	6	1	1	+8	+2.9	19
4	Milan	8	6	0	2	+10	+3.6	18
5	Roma	8	5	2	1	+12	+5.3	17
6	Frosinone	8	5	2	1	+4	-1.7	17
7	Fiorentina	8	5	1	2	+6	+0.8	16
8	Torino	8	4	3	1	+3	+3.7	15
9	Lecce	9	4	3	2	+0	-1.5	15
10	Lazio	8	4	2	2	+2	+4.7	14
11	Atalanta	7	4	1	2	+6	+3.6	13
12	Monza	8	3	4	1	+5	+1.5	13
13	Genoa	8	3	3	2	+1	-0.3	12
14	Cagliari	8	3	2	3	-4	+1.5	11
15	Napoli	8	3	1	4	-1	+5.1	10
16	Sassuolo	8	2	2	4	-2	-0.6	8
17	Verona	7	1	3	3	-4	-2.1	6
18	Udinese	8	0	6	2	-5	+2.1	6
19	Salernitana	8	1	3	4	-9	-5.8	6
20	Empoli	8	1	2	5	-7	-1.9	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	8	7	1	0	+16	+8.4	22
2	Napoli	8	5	2	1	+10	+7.7	17
3	Juventus	8	5	2	1	+6	+5.4	17
4	Milan	8	4	2	2	+1	-1.4	14
5	Fiorentina	8	3	2	3	+1	-3.8	11
6	Atalanta	8	3	1	4	+0	+0.8	10
7	Bologna	8	1	6	1	+0	+2.1	9
8	Roma	8	2	2	4	-3	+1.7	8
9	Sassuolo	8	2	2	4	-4	-4.9	8
10	Torino	8	2	2	4	-5	-3.7	8
11	Monza	8	2	2	4	-6	-5.3	8
12	Lazio	8	2	1	5	-4	-2.2	7
13	Udinese	8	1	4	3	-8	-6.1	7
14	Empoli	8	2	1	5	-11	-5.1	7
15	Lecce	7	0	5	2	-2	-8.0	5
16	Verona	9	1	2	6	-6	-5.8	5
17	Genoa	8	1	1	6	-6	-0.8	4
18	Frosinone	8	0	2	6	-9	-3.9	2
19	Cagliari	8	0	2	6	-9	-7.5	2
20	Salernitana	7	0	2	5	-10	-11.2	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.