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Serie A

Referee: F La Penna

Atalanta

S U T U T

3–2

Full-time

Milan

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 54%

43%

64%

Points per game

1,4

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

57%

50%

Both score Ø 47%

43%

50%

Average goals

2,6

2,8

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

3,33 xG 1,52

42% Possession 58%

19 Shots 14

7 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Atalanta 9. · Milan 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	15	11	3	1	+14	+13.7	36
2	Inter	14	11	2	1	+26	+19.1	35
3	Milan	14	9	2	3	+9	+3.6	29
4	Roma	14	7	3	4	+11	+7.7	24
5	Napoli	15	7	3	5	+8	+12.1	24
6	Fiorentina	14	7	2	5	+6	-1.7	23
7	Bologna	14	5	7	2	+5	+3.4	22
8	Lazio	15	6	3	6	+0	+2.6	21
9	Atalanta	14	6	2	6	+5	+2.7	20
10	Torino	14	5	4	5	-3	-1.3	19
11	Monza	14	4	6	4	+1	-2.4	18
12	Frosinone	14	5	3	6	-4	-6.2	18
13	Lecce	14	3	7	4	-3	-7.8	16
14	Genoa	14	4	3	7	-4	-1.2	15
15	Sassuolo	14	4	3	7	-5	-7.5	15
16	Udinese	14	1	9	4	-9	+0.9	12
17	Verona	15	2	5	8	-9	-9.9	11
18	Empoli	14	3	2	9	-17	-6.8	11
19	Cagliari	14	2	4	8	-13	-5.5	10
20	Salernitana	14	1	5	8	-18	-15.5	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	8	6	2	0	+8	+9.2	20
2	Roma	7	5	1	1	+12	+6.1	16
3	Inter	7	5	1	1	+12	+10.8	16
4	Bologna	7	5	1	1	+6	+2.9	16
5	Frosinone	7	5	1	1	+4	-1.2	16
6	Milan	7	5	0	2	+7	+3.2	15
7	Lazio	7	4	2	1	+4	+4.8	14
8	Fiorentina	7	4	1	2	+5	+2.9	13
9	Torino	7	3	3	1	+2	+2.8	12
10	Lecce	8	3	3	2	-1	-0.5	12
11	Genoa	7	3	2	2	+1	+0.6	11
12	Atalanta	6	3	1	2	+5	+1.8	10
13	Monza	7	2	4	1	+4	+2.5	10
14	Sassuolo	8	2	2	4	-2	-0.6	8
15	Cagliari	7	2	2	3	-5	+1.3	8
16	Napoli	7	2	1	4	-2	+4.4	7
17	Verona	7	1	3	3	-4	-2.1	6
18	Salernitana	7	1	3	3	-8	-4.2	6
19	Udinese	7	0	5	2	-5	+4.3	5
20	Empoli	7	1	1	5	-7	-2.6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	7	6	1	0	+14	+8.3	19
2	Napoli	8	5	2	1	+10	+7.7	17
3	Juventus	7	5	1	1	+6	+4.6	16
4	Milan	7	4	2	1	+2	+0.4	14
5	Fiorentina	7	3	1	3	+1	-4.6	10
6	Atalanta	8	3	1	4	+0	+0.8	10
7	Roma	7	2	2	3	-1	+1.6	8
8	Monza	7	2	2	3	-3	-4.9	8
9	Sassuolo	6	2	1	3	-3	-6.9	7
10	Lazio	8	2	1	5	-4	-2.2	7
11	Udinese	7	1	4	2	-4	-3.4	7
12	Torino	7	2	1	4	-5	-4.1	7
13	Empoli	7	2	1	4	-10	-4.2	7
14	Bologna	7	0	6	1	-1	+0.5	6
15	Verona	8	1	2	5	-5	-7.9	5
16	Lecce	6	0	4	2	-2	-7.3	4
17	Genoa	7	1	1	5	-5	-1.8	4
18	Frosinone	7	0	2	5	-8	-5.0	2
19	Cagliari	7	0	2	5	-8	-6.8	2
20	Salernitana	7	0	2	5	-10	-11.2	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.