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Serie A

Referee: P Tremolada

Fiorentina

T S S T S

3–0

Full-time

Salernitana

T S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Salernitana

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,7

3,0

Scored

0,8

1,7

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 27%

46%

Points per game

1,5

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

54%

Both score Ø 46%

46%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,3

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,56 xG 0,80

58% Possession 42%

22 Shots 11

9 Shots on target 1

8 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 7

3 Corners 2

2 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 8. · Salernitana 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	14	10	3	1	+13	+13.9	33
2	Inter	13	10	2	1	+23	+17.0	32
3	Milan	14	9	2	3	+9	+3.6	29
4	Napoli	13	7	3	3	+12	+14.1	24
5	Bologna	14	5	7	2	+5	+3.4	22
6	Roma	13	6	3	4	+10	+6.4	21
7	Atalanta	13	6	2	5	+8	+3.9	20
8	Fiorentina	13	6	2	5	+3	-3.5	20
9	Lazio	14	6	2	6	+0	+2.7	20
10	Monza	14	4	6	4	+1	-2.4	18
11	Frosinone	14	5	3	6	-4	-6.2	18
12	Lecce	14	3	7	4	-3	-7.8	16
13	Torino	13	4	4	5	-6	-2.5	16
14	Sassuolo	13	4	3	6	-4	-6.2	15
15	Genoa	14	4	3	7	-4	-1.2	15
16	Udinese	13	1	8	4	-9	+0.4	11
17	Empoli	14	3	2	9	-17	-6.8	11
18	Cagliari	14	2	4	8	-13	-5.5	10
19	Verona	13	2	3	8	-9	-9.5	9
20	Salernitana	13	1	5	7	-15	-13.7	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	7	5	2	0	+7	+9.3	17
2	Roma	7	5	1	1	+12	+6.1	16
3	Inter	7	5	1	1	+12	+10.8	16
4	Bologna	7	5	1	1	+6	+2.9	16
5	Frosinone	7	5	1	1	+4	-1.2	16
6	Milan	7	5	0	2	+7	+3.2	15
7	Lazio	7	4	2	1	+4	+4.8	14
8	Lecce	8	3	3	2	-1	-0.5	12
9	Genoa	7	3	2	2	+1	+0.6	11
10	Atalanta	6	3	1	2	+5	+1.8	10
11	Monza	7	2	4	1	+4	+2.5	10
12	Fiorentina	6	3	1	2	+2	+1.2	10
13	Torino	6	2	3	1	-1	+1.6	9
14	Sassuolo	7	2	2	3	-1	+0.8	8
15	Cagliari	7	2	2	3	-5	+1.3	8
16	Napoli	6	2	1	3	+1	+6.5	7
17	Salernitana	7	1	3	3	-8	-4.2	6
18	Verona	6	1	2	3	-4	-2.1	5
19	Udinese	6	0	4	2	-5	+3.8	4
20	Empoli	7	1	1	5	-7	-2.6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	7	5	2	0	+11	+7.5	17
2	Inter	6	5	1	0	+11	+6.2	16
3	Juventus	7	5	1	1	+6	+4.6	16
4	Milan	7	4	2	1	+2	+0.4	14
5	Atalanta	7	3	1	3	+3	+2.1	10
6	Fiorentina	7	3	1	3	+1	-4.6	10
7	Monza	7	2	2	3	-3	-4.9	8
8	Sassuolo	6	2	1	3	-3	-6.9	7
9	Udinese	7	1	4	2	-4	-3.4	7
10	Torino	7	2	1	4	-5	-4.1	7
11	Empoli	7	2	1	4	-10	-4.2	7
12	Bologna	7	0	6	1	-1	+0.5	6
13	Lazio	7	2	0	5	-4	-2.1	6
14	Roma	6	1	2	3	-2	+0.3	5
15	Lecce	6	0	4	2	-2	-7.3	4
16	Genoa	7	1	1	5	-5	-1.8	4
17	Verona	7	1	1	5	-5	-7.3	4
18	Salernitana	6	0	2	4	-7	-9.5	2
19	Frosinone	7	0	2	5	-8	-5.0	2
20	Cagliari	7	0	2	5	-8	-6.8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.