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Serie A

Referee: A Rapuano

Roma

T U S U S

1–1

Full-time

Fiorentina

S T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

64%

57%

Both score Ø 54%

64%

43%

Average goals

3,1

2,9

Scored

1,9

1,6

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,66 xG 1,46

34% Possession 66%

4 Shots 14

1 Shots on target 8

1 Blocked shots 1

7 Goalkeeper saves 0

1 Corners 6

1 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 14

5 Yellow cards 3

2 Red cards 1

The table before the match Roma 5. · Fiorentina 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	15	12	2	1	+30	+21.8	38
2	Juventus	15	11	3	1	+14	+13.7	36
3	Milan	15	9	2	4	+8	+1.8	29
4	Bologna	15	6	7	2	+6	+5.0	25
5	Roma	14	7	3	4	+11	+7.7	24
6	Napoli	15	7	3	5	+8	+12.1	24
7	Atalanta	15	7	2	6	+6	+4.5	23
8	Fiorentina	14	7	2	5	+6	-1.7	23
9	Monza	15	5	6	4	+2	-3.4	21
10	Lazio	15	6	3	6	+0	+2.6	21
11	Torino	15	5	5	5	-3	-0.8	20
12	Frosinone	15	5	4	6	-4	-6.7	19
13	Lecce	14	3	7	4	-3	-7.8	16
14	Sassuolo	14	4	3	7	-5	-7.5	15
15	Genoa	15	4	3	8	-5	-0.2	15
16	Udinese	15	1	9	5	-13	-1.8	12
17	Verona	15	2	5	8	-9	-9.9	11
18	Empoli	14	3	2	9	-17	-6.8	11
19	Cagliari	14	2	4	8	-13	-5.5	10
20	Salernitana	15	1	5	9	-19	-17.0	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	8	6	2	0	+8	+9.2	20
2	Inter	8	6	1	1	+16	+13.5	19
3	Frosinone	8	5	2	1	+4	-1.7	17
4	Roma	7	5	1	1	+12	+6.1	16
5	Bologna	7	5	1	1	+6	+2.9	16
6	Milan	7	5	0	2	+7	+3.2	15
7	Lazio	7	4	2	1	+4	+4.8	14
8	Atalanta	7	4	1	2	+6	+3.6	13
9	Fiorentina	7	4	1	2	+5	+2.9	13
10	Monza	8	3	4	1	+5	+1.5	13
11	Torino	7	3	3	1	+2	+2.8	12
12	Lecce	8	3	3	2	-1	-0.5	12
13	Genoa	7	3	2	2	+1	+0.6	11
14	Sassuolo	8	2	2	4	-2	-0.6	8
15	Cagliari	7	2	2	3	-5	+1.3	8
16	Napoli	7	2	1	4	-2	+4.4	7
17	Verona	7	1	3	3	-4	-2.1	6
18	Salernitana	8	1	3	4	-9	-5.8	6
19	Udinese	7	0	5	2	-5	+4.3	5
20	Empoli	7	1	1	5	-7	-2.6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	7	6	1	0	+14	+8.3	19
2	Napoli	8	5	2	1	+10	+7.7	17
3	Juventus	7	5	1	1	+6	+4.6	16
4	Milan	8	4	2	2	+1	-1.4	14
5	Fiorentina	7	3	1	3	+1	-4.6	10
6	Atalanta	8	3	1	4	+0	+0.8	10
7	Bologna	8	1	6	1	+0	+2.1	9
8	Roma	7	2	2	3	-1	+1.6	8
9	Monza	7	2	2	3	-3	-4.9	8
10	Torino	8	2	2	4	-5	-3.7	8
11	Sassuolo	6	2	1	3	-3	-6.9	7
12	Lazio	8	2	1	5	-4	-2.2	7
13	Udinese	8	1	4	3	-8	-6.1	7
14	Empoli	7	2	1	4	-10	-4.2	7
15	Verona	8	1	2	5	-5	-7.9	5
16	Lecce	6	0	4	2	-2	-7.3	4
17	Genoa	8	1	1	6	-6	-0.8	4
18	Frosinone	7	0	2	5	-8	-5.0	2
19	Cagliari	7	0	2	5	-8	-6.8	2
20	Salernitana	7	0	2	5	-10	-11.2	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.