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Serie A
Referee: D Chiffi
Milan
S S U S U
3–2
Full-time
Inter
S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Inter
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
67%
83%
Points per game
2,3
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
33%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
2,5
3,5
Scored
2,0
2,5
Conceded
0,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+1,5
This season — Serie A · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 63%
50%
75%
Points per game
2,0
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 63%
25%
100%
Both score Ø 63%
50%
75%
Average goals
2,5
3,5
Scored
1,8
2,3
Conceded
0,8
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

48% Possession 52%
21 Shots 16
5 Shots on target 5
4 Blocked shots 7
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
2 Corners 5
2 Offside 2
10 Free kicks against 12
5 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Milan 6. · Inter 4.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Atalanta 4 3 1 0 +5 10
2 Roma 4 3 1 0 +5 10
3 Juventus 5 2 3 0 +5 9
4 Inter 4 3 0 1 +4 9
5 Napoli 4 2 2 0 +7 8
6 Milan 4 2 2 0 +4 8
7 Lazio 4 2 2 0 +3 8
8 Udinese 4 2 1 1 +0 7
9 Torino 4 2 1 1 +0 7
10 Fiorentina 5 1 3 1 +0 6
11 Salernitana 4 1 2 1 +3 5
12 Sassuolo 4 1 2 1 -2 5
13 Spezia 4 1 1 2 -4 4
14 Empoli 4 0 3 1 -1 3
15 Lecce 4 0 2 2 -2 2
16 Bologna 4 0 2 2 -3 2
17 Verona 4 0 2 2 -4 2
18 Sampdoria 4 0 2 2 -6 2
19 Cremonese 4 0 0 4 -5 0
20 Monza 4 0 0 4 -9 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Milan Inter
9′
🟨 Denzel Dumfries
Theo Hernández 🟨
10′
21′
M. Brozović 0–1
J. Correa
1–1 Rafael Leão
S. Tonali
28′
Olivier Giroud 🟨
31′
38′
🟨 Marcelo Brozović
Half-time 1–1
Charles De Ketelaere 🟨
51′
2–1 O. Giroud
Rafael Leão
54′
3–1 Rafael Leão
O. Giroud
60′
Brahim Díaz 🔁
↦ C. De Ketelaere
63′
63′
🔁 H. Mkhitaryan
↦ N. Barella
64′
🔁 E. Džeko
↦ J. Correa
64′
🔁 F. Dimarco
↦ A. Bastoni
67′
E. Džeko 3–2
M. Darmian
A. Saelemaekers 🔁
↦ Junior Messias
72′
D. Origi 🔁
↦ O. Giroud
73′
Sandro Tonali 🟨
77′
S. Kjær 🔁
↦ D. Calabria
84′
T. Pobega 🔁
↦ S. Tonali
84′
84′
🔁 R. Gosens
↦ M. Darmian
84′
🔁 D. D'Ambrosio
↦ S. de Vrij
Rafael Leão 🟨
93′
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Milan

4-2-3-1
16 M. Maignan G
2 D. Calabria D
20 P. Kalulu D
23 F. Tomori D
19 T. Hernández D
8 S. Tonali M
4 I. Bennacer M
30 Junior Messias M
90 C. De Ketelaere M
17 Rafael Leão M
9 O. Giroud F
Bench (14)
10 Brahim Díaz
56 A. Saelemaekers
27 D. Origi
24 S. Kjær
32 T. Pobega
28 M. Thiaw
7 Y. Adli
1 C. Tătărușanu
14 T. Bakayoko
83 A. Mirante
5 F. Ballo
21 S. Dest
40 A. Vranckx
46 M. Gabbia

Coach: S. Pioli

Inter

3-5-2
1 S. Handanovič G
37 M. Škriniar D
6 S. de Vrij D
95 A. Bastoni D
2 D. Dumfries M
23 N. Barella M
77 M. Brozović M
20 H. Çalhanoğlu M
36 M. Darmian M
10 Lautaro Martínez F
11 J. Correa F
Bench (12)
22 H. Mkhitaryan
9 E. Džeko
32 F. Dimarco
8 R. Gosens
33 D. D'Ambrosio
24 A. Onana
12 R. Bellanova
21 A. Cordaz
45 V. Carboni
14 K. Asllani
15 F. Acerbi
5 R. Gagliardini

Coach: S. Inzaghi

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,79
U
3,30
B
2,63
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,84
U2,5
1,99
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

D Chiffi · 119 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.