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Serie A

Referee: F Fourneau

Parma

U S T T U

2–3

Full-time

Cagliari

U T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Parma Cagliari

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

83%

17%

Average goals

3,0

1,7

Scored

1,3

0,3

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 10%

20%

Points per game

1,0

0,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

80%

20%

Both score Ø 60%

100%

20%

Average goals

3,4

1,8

Scored

1,6

0,2

Conceded

1,8

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,38 xG 2,38

61% Possession 39%

18 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 3

1 Offside 4

10 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Parma 15. · Cagliari 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	6	4	1	1	+7	+3.1	13
2	Juventus	6	3	3	0	+9	+4.4	12
3	Milan	6	3	2	1	+7	+4.7	11
4	Inter	6	3	2	1	+6	+3.8	11
5	Torino	6	3	2	1	+2	-2.4	11
6	Empoli	6	2	4	0	+3	-1.8	10
7	Lazio	6	3	1	2	+2	+3.1	10
8	Udinese	6	3	1	2	-1	-4.2	10
9	Roma	6	2	3	1	+3	+1.3	9
10	Como	6	2	2	2	-2	+0.7	8
11	Fiorentina	6	1	4	1	+0	+3.3	7
12	Atalanta	6	2	1	3	-1	+3.4	7
13	Bologna	6	1	4	1	-2	-0.9	7
14	Verona	6	2	0	4	-1	-3.1	6
15	Parma	5	1	2	2	-1	-0.8	5
16	Genoa	6	1	2	3	-6	-3.9	5
17	Lecce	6	1	2	3	-8	-3.1	5
18	Venezia	6	1	1	4	-6	-3.0	4
19	Monza	6	0	3	3	-4	-4.6	3
20	Cagliari	5	0	2	3	-7	+0.0	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	3	3	0	0	+6	+3.1	9
2	Milan	3	2	1	0	+7	+4.3	7
3	Lazio	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.9	7
4	Inter	3	2	0	1	+5	+1.1	6
5	Roma	3	2	0	1	+3	+0.5	6
6	Udinese	3	2	0	1	+1	-2.6	6
7	Juventus	3	1	2	0	+3	+1.1	5
8	Fiorentina	3	1	2	0	+1	+3.8	5
9	Como	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.1	4
10	Parma	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.0	4
11	Torino	3	1	1	1	+0	-3.3	4
12	Lecce	3	1	1	1	-3	-0.9	4
13	Venezia	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.0	3
14	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
15	Bologna	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.7	3
16	Empoli	3	0	3	0	+0	-0.6	3
17	Verona	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.6	3
18	Genoa	4	0	2	2	-5	-3.0	2
19	Cagliari	4	0	2	2	-6	-0.1	2
20	Monza	3	0	1	2	-2	-1.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	3	2	1	0	+6	+3.3	7
2	Empoli	3	2	1	0	+3	-1.2	7
3	Torino	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.9	7
4	Inter	3	1	2	0	+1	+2.7	5
5	Napoli	3	1	1	1	+1	+0.0	4
6	Milan	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.4	4
7	Atalanta	4	1	1	2	-1	+2.9	4
8	Udinese	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.6	4
9	Bologna	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.6	4
10	Como	4	1	1	2	-3	-0.4	4
11	Verona	3	1	0	2	+0	-1.5	3
12	Roma	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.8	3
13	Lazio	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.1	3
14	Genoa	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.9	3
15	Fiorentina	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.4	2
16	Monza	3	0	2	1	-2	-2.8	2
17	Parma	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
18	Lecce	3	0	1	2	-5	-2.2	1
19	Venezia	4	0	1	3	-7	-4.0	1
20	Cagliari	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.