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Serie B

Referee: M Gariglio

Parma

U T S S U

2–1

Full-time

Cagliari

S S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Parma Cagliari

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,5

2,2

Scored

0,8

1,7

Conceded

0,7

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,2

This season — Serie B · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 36%

39%

33%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 46%

39%

52%

Average goals

2,2

2,1

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,1

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

50% Possession 50%

14 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 5

1 Offside 5

15 Free kicks against 20

5 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Parma 7. · Cagliari 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Frosinone	33	20	7	6	+31	67
2	Genoa	33	18	10	5	+23	64
3	Bari	33	15	12	6	+20	57
4	Sudtirol	33	13	13	7	+4	52
5	Reggina	34	15	4	15	+5	49
6	Cagliari	33	11	15	7	+9	48
7	Parma	33	13	9	11	+4	48
8	Pisa	33	11	13	9	+11	46
9	Modena	33	12	7	14	-1	43
10	Palermo	33	10	13	10	-1	43
11	Ternana	33	11	10	12	-7	43
12	Ascoli	33	11	9	13	-6	42
13	Como	33	9	14	10	-2	41
14	Venezia	33	10	9	14	-7	39
15	Cittadella	33	8	13	12	-12	37
16	Cosenza	33	9	10	14	-21	37
17	Brescia	34	8	11	15	-20	35
18	Perugia	33	9	7	17	-7	34
19	Spal	33	7	12	14	-9	33
20	Benevento	33	6	12	15	-14	30

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Frosinone	16	12	2	2	+21	38
2	Genoa	17	10	6	1	+17	36
3	Cagliari	17	9	6	2	+9	33
4	Ternana	16	8	5	3	+5	29
5	Palermo	16	7	6	3	+7	27
6	Cosenza	17	7	6	4	+3	27
7	Bari	17	6	8	3	+10	26
8	Pisa	16	7	5	4	+10	26
9	Como	16	7	5	4	+6	26
10	Parma	16	8	2	6	+6	26
11	Reggina	17	8	2	7	+4	26
12	Sudtirol	17	6	8	3	+3	26
13	Modena	16	6	6	4	+7	24
14	Perugia	16	5	5	6	+0	20
15	Ascoli	17	5	5	7	-3	20
16	Venezia	17	5	5	7	-4	20
17	Brescia	17	5	5	7	-6	20
18	Cittadella	16	4	7	5	-4	19
19	Spal	17	4	6	7	-1	18
20	Benevento	17	3	5	9	-10	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bari	16	9	4	3	+10	31
2	Frosinone	17	8	5	4	+10	29
3	Genoa	16	8	4	4	+6	28
4	Sudtirol	16	7	5	4	+1	26
5	Reggina	17	7	2	8	+1	23
6	Parma	17	5	7	5	-2	22
7	Ascoli	16	6	4	6	-3	22
8	Pisa	17	4	8	5	+1	20
9	Venezia	16	5	4	7	-3	19
10	Modena	17	6	1	10	-8	19
11	Cittadella	17	4	6	7	-8	18
12	Benevento	16	3	7	6	-4	16
13	Palermo	17	3	7	7	-8	16
14	Cagliari	16	2	9	5	+0	15
15	Como	17	2	9	6	-8	15
16	Spal	16	3	6	7	-8	15
17	Brescia	17	3	6	8	-14	15
18	Perugia	17	4	2	11	-7	14
19	Ternana	17	3	5	9	-12	14
20	Cosenza	16	2	4	10	-24	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.