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Serie A

Referee: M Guida

Lecce

S T T S U

2–2

Full-time

Parma

T U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lecce Parma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

17%

83%

Average goals

1,7

2,7

Scored

0,5

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 25%

25%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

25%

75%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

1,8

3,3

Scored

0,3

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,51 xG 2,11

38% Possession 62%

14 Shots 24

3 Shots on target 10

5 Blocked shots 12

8 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 12

4 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 11

4 Yellow cards 0

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Lecce 14. · Parma 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Torino	5	3	2	0	+3	-1.1	11
2	Napoli	5	3	1	1	+5	+2.3	10
3	Udinese	4	3	1	0	+3	-1.6	10
4	Juventus	5	2	3	0	+6	+2.2	9
5	Empoli	5	2	3	0	+3	-1.4	9
6	Inter	4	2	2	0	+6	+3.4	8
7	Lazio	4	2	1	1	+2	+3.4	7
8	Verona	5	2	0	3	+0	-2.0	6
9	Atalanta	4	2	0	2	+0	+0.7	6
10	Milan	4	1	2	1	+3	+2.6	5
11	Genoa	5	1	2	2	-3	-1.7	5
12	Parma	4	1	1	2	-1	-1.4	4
13	Venezia	5	1	1	3	-5	-3.1	4
14	Lecce	4	1	1	2	-5	-1.3	4
15	Fiorentina	4	0	3	1	-1	+1.3	3
16	Monza	4	0	3	1	-1	-3.6	3
17	Roma	4	0	3	1	-1	+0.1	3
18	Bologna	4	0	3	1	-3	+0.9	3
19	Como	4	0	2	2	-4	+0.4	2
20	Cagliari	5	0	2	3	-7	+0.0	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lazio	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.9	7
2	Inter	2	2	0	0	+6	+2.1	6
3	Napoli	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.3	6
4	Udinese	2	2	0	0	+2	-1.2	6
5	Juventus	3	1	2	0	+3	+1.1	5
6	Milan	2	1	1	0	+4	+3.1	4
7	Torino	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.9	4
8	Parma	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.0	4
9	Atalanta	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
10	Venezia	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.0	3
11	Verona	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.6	3
12	Lecce	2	1	0	1	-3	-0.3	3
13	Fiorentina	2	0	2	0	+0	+2.0	2
14	Bologna	2	0	2	0	+0	+2.7	2
15	Empoli	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.3	2
16	Genoa	3	0	2	1	-2	-0.8	2
17	Cagliari	4	0	2	2	-6	-0.1	2
18	Como	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.0	1
19	Monza	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.7	1
20	Roma	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Empoli	3	2	1	0	+3	-1.2	7
2	Torino	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.9	7
3	Juventus	2	1	1	0	+3	+1.1	4
4	Udinese	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.4	4
5	Napoli	3	1	1	1	+1	+0.0	4
6	Verona	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.4	3
7	Roma	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.8	3
8	Atalanta	3	1	0	2	-1	+1.0	3
9	Genoa	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.9	3
10	Inter	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.3	2
11	Monza	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.9	2
12	Fiorentina	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.8	1
13	Milan	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.6	1
14	Lecce	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.0	1
15	Bologna	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.8	1
16	Como	3	0	1	2	-4	+0.4	1
17	Venezia	3	0	1	2	-6	-4.0	1
18	Parma	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
19	Lazio	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.5	0
20	Cagliari	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.