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Serie A

Referee: F La Penna

Inter

S S S U T

2–1

Full-time

Fiorentina

T U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Inter Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

2,0

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 59%

65%

52%

Points per game

2,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

65%

61%

Both score Ø 53%

48%

57%

Average goals

3,4

2,7

Scored

2,4

1,7

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,24 xG 1,04

62% Possession 38%

22 Shots 7

8 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 7

8 Corners 1

1 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 15

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Inter 2. · Fiorentina 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	24	17	4	3	+22	+15.0	55
2	Inter	23	15	6	2	+34	+24.6	51
3	Atalanta	24	15	5	4	+28	+18.8	50
4	Lazio	24	14	3	7	+13	+11.8	45
5	Juventus	24	10	13	1	+20	+12.2	43
6	Fiorentina	23	12	6	5	+17	+7.6	42
7	Milan	23	10	8	5	+11	+13.6	38
8	Bologna	23	9	11	3	+8	+6.9	38
9	Roma	24	9	7	8	+6	+4.9	34
10	Udinese	24	8	6	10	-8	-11.0	30
11	Torino	24	6	10	8	-3	-9.1	28
12	Genoa	24	6	9	9	-11	-6.3	27
13	Cagliari	24	6	6	12	-13	-7.3	24
14	Lecce	24	6	6	12	-23	-16.1	24
15	Verona	24	7	2	15	-27	-12.7	23
16	Como	24	5	7	12	-12	+1.0	22
17	Empoli	24	4	9	11	-13	-12.5	21
18	Parma	24	4	8	12	-14	-13.7	20
19	Venezia	24	3	7	14	-17	-15.1	16
20	Monza	24	2	7	15	-18	-12.8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	12	9	1	2	+10	+12.5	28
2	Inter	11	7	3	1	+13	+10.0	24
3	Fiorentina	12	7	3	2	+9	+7.5	24
4	Lazio	12	7	3	2	+8	+8.6	24
5	Atalanta	11	7	2	2	+13	+10.4	23
6	Roma	12	7	1	4	+12	+7.1	22
7	Juventus	12	5	7	0	+11	+9.7	22
8	Milan	12	5	6	1	+10	+9.9	21
9	Bologna	11	5	5	1	+8	+9.1	20
10	Udinese	12	5	2	5	-2	-5.1	17
11	Como	12	4	3	5	-1	+2.7	15
12	Cagliari	13	4	3	6	-7	-0.6	15
13	Torino	12	3	5	4	-1	-4.0	14
14	Lecce	12	3	5	4	-12	-2.7	14
15	Venezia	12	3	3	6	-3	-1.6	12
16	Parma	12	3	3	6	-4	-3.0	12
17	Genoa	12	2	6	4	-4	-1.9	12
18	Verona	12	3	1	8	-19	-4.9	10
19	Empoli	12	1	5	6	-9	-4.2	8
20	Monza	12	1	3	8	-7	-4.0	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	12	8	3	1	+21	+14.6	27
2	Atalanta	13	8	3	2	+15	+8.4	27
3	Napoli	12	8	3	1	+12	+2.5	27
4	Juventus	12	5	6	1	+9	+2.5	21
5	Lazio	12	7	0	5	+5	+3.2	21
6	Fiorentina	11	5	3	3	+8	+0.1	18
7	Bologna	12	4	6	2	+0	-2.3	18
8	Milan	11	5	2	4	+1	+3.8	17
9	Genoa	12	4	3	5	-7	-4.3	15
10	Torino	12	3	5	4	-2	-5.1	14
11	Empoli	12	3	4	5	-4	-8.3	13
12	Udinese	12	3	4	5	-6	-5.9	13
13	Verona	12	4	1	7	-8	-7.7	13
14	Roma	12	2	6	4	-6	-2.2	12
15	Lecce	12	3	1	8	-11	-13.4	10
16	Cagliari	11	2	3	6	-6	-6.7	9
17	Parma	12	1	5	6	-10	-10.7	8
18	Monza	12	1	4	7	-11	-8.7	7
19	Como	12	1	4	7	-11	-1.7	7
20	Venezia	12	0	4	8	-14	-13.5	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.