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Serie A

Referee: G Aureliano

Fiorentina

S S T U U

0–1

Full-time

Inter

T S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Inter

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

1,3

3,0

Scored

0,8

2,2

Conceded

0,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 65%

50%

80%

Points per game

1,7

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

45%

55%

Both score Ø 40%

40%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

1,5

2,5

Conceded

1,1

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,84 xG 0,55

58% Possession 42%

14 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 6

3 Offside 4

6 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 5. · Inter 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	22	16	5	1	+23	+19.6	53
2	Inter	20	16	3	1	+39	+28.8	51
3	Milan	22	14	4	4	+18	+8.5	46
4	Atalanta	21	11	3	7	+16	+8.2	36
5	Fiorentina	20	10	4	6	+8	-1.1	34
6	Lazio	21	10	4	7	+4	+4.3	34
7	Bologna	21	8	9	4	+5	+3.9	33
8	Roma	21	9	5	7	+9	+8.5	32
9	Napoli	21	9	5	7	+5	+12.9	32
10	Torino	21	8	7	6	+1	+0.3	31
11	Genoa	22	7	7	8	-2	-2.9	28
12	Monza	22	7	7	8	-7	-9.7	28
13	Frosinone	22	6	5	11	-12	-9.2	23
14	Lecce	22	4	9	9	-10	-11.5	21
15	Sassuolo	21	5	4	12	-11	-7.7	19
16	Verona	22	4	6	12	-10	-6.8	18
17	Udinese	22	2	12	8	-14	-6.6	18
18	Cagliari	22	4	6	12	-17	-6.9	18
19	Empoli	22	4	5	13	-21	-10.4	17
20	Salernitana	21	2	6	13	-24	-22.4	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	11	8	3	0	+12	+10.8	27
2	Inter	10	8	1	1	+19	+15.8	25
3	Atalanta	11	8	1	2	+17	+8.2	25
4	Milan	11	8	1	2	+13	+6.2	25
5	Roma	11	7	3	1	+15	+7.5	24
6	Bologna	10	7	2	1	+9	+3.6	23
7	Lazio	11	6	3	2	+5	+5.2	21
8	Fiorentina	10	6	2	2	+7	+1.2	20
9	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	+4	-0.2	20
10	Torino	10	5	4	1	+6	+4.9	19
11	Genoa	11	4	5	2	+2	-1.6	17
12	Monza	11	4	4	3	+1	-3.5	16
13	Lecce	11	4	4	3	-3	-2.4	16
14	Cagliari	11	4	3	4	-4	+3.6	15
15	Napoli	10	4	2	4	+0	+7.8	14
16	Verona	11	3	4	4	-2	-0.7	13
17	Sassuolo	10	3	2	5	-2	-1.2	11
18	Udinese	11	1	6	4	-4	+0.3	9
19	Empoli	11	2	2	7	-9	-3.8	8
20	Salernitana	11	1	4	6	-11	-8.2	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	10	8	2	0	+20	+13.1	26
2	Juventus	11	8	2	1	+11	+8.9	26
3	Milan	11	6	3	2	+5	+2.2	21
4	Napoli	11	5	3	3	+5	+5.1	18
5	Fiorentina	10	4	2	4	+1	-2.2	14
6	Lazio	10	4	1	5	-1	-0.9	13
7	Torino	11	3	3	5	-5	-4.6	12
8	Monza	11	3	3	5	-8	-6.2	12
9	Atalanta	10	3	2	5	-1	+0.0	11
10	Genoa	11	3	2	6	-4	-1.3	11
11	Bologna	11	1	7	3	-4	+0.4	10
12	Udinese	11	1	6	4	-10	-7.0	9
13	Empoli	11	2	3	6	-12	-6.6	9
14	Roma	10	2	2	6	-6	+1.0	8
15	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	-9	-6.5	8
16	Lecce	11	0	5	6	-7	-9.1	5
17	Verona	11	1	2	8	-8	-6.1	5
18	Salernitana	10	1	2	7	-13	-14.1	5
19	Cagliari	11	0	3	8	-13	-10.6	3
20	Frosinone	11	0	3	8	-16	-9.0	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.