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Serie A

Referee: F Dionisi

Monza

T T T T T

2–1

Full-time

Fiorentina

T U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monza Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,2

3,3

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

2,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 19/18 matches

Win Ø 28%

50%

Points per game

0,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

47%

56%

Both score Ø 57%

63%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

0,9

1,7

Conceded

1,4

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,67 xG 1,37

34% Possession 66%

10 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 4

0 Offside 1

26 Free kicks against 9

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Monza 20. · Fiorentina 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	20	15	2	3	+20	+13.2	47
2	Inter	18	13	4	1	+31	+20.3	43
3	Atalanta	19	13	3	3	+23	+15.9	42
4	Lazio	20	11	3	6	+6	+9.0	36
5	Juventus	19	7	12	0	+15	+12.3	33
6	Fiorentina	18	9	5	4	+13	+7.4	32
7	Bologna	18	7	8	3	+4	+5.3	29
8	Milan	18	7	7	4	+9	+13.1	28
9	Udinese	20	7	5	8	-5	-7.3	26
10	Roma	20	6	6	8	+2	+0.8	24
11	Genoa	20	5	8	7	-10	-8.0	23
12	Torino	20	5	7	8	-5	-7.2	22
13	Empoli	20	4	8	8	-6	-9.4	20
14	Lecce	20	5	5	10	-18	-11.2	20
15	Parma	20	4	7	9	-10	-14.4	19
16	Como	19	4	7	8	-10	+1.6	19
17	Verona	20	6	1	13	-20	-13.7	19
18	Cagliari	20	4	6	10	-14	-8.8	18
19	Venezia	20	3	5	12	-15	-13.1	14
20	Monza	19	1	7	11	-10	-5.8	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	10	8	0	2	+9	+10.6	24
2	Atalanta	8	7	0	1	+14	+8.2	21
3	Lazio	10	6	3	1	+5	+5.7	21
4	Inter	9	6	2	1	+11	+7.6	20
5	Roma	10	6	0	4	+10	+5.8	18
6	Milan	10	4	5	1	+9	+10.0	17
7	Fiorentina	9	5	2	2	+5	+7.3	17
8	Juventus	10	3	7	0	+6	+8.5	16
9	Bologna	9	3	5	1	+4	+6.9	14
10	Udinese	10	4	2	4	-2	-2.6	14
11	Lecce	10	3	4	3	-8	-1.1	13
12	Como	8	3	3	2	-1	+2.3	12
13	Parma	10	3	2	5	-2	-4.6	11
14	Venezia	10	3	2	5	-2	+0.5	11
15	Torino	10	2	4	4	-3	-5.5	10
16	Verona	10	3	1	6	-11	-4.3	10
17	Genoa	11	1	6	4	-6	-4.2	9
18	Cagliari	10	2	3	5	-10	-3.3	9
19	Empoli	10	1	4	5	-7	-3.5	7
20	Monza	10	0	3	7	-7	-2.8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	9	7	2	0	+20	+12.7	23
2	Napoli	10	7	2	1	+11	+2.6	23
3	Atalanta	11	6	3	2	+9	+7.7	21
4	Juventus	9	4	5	0	+9	+3.8	17
5	Fiorentina	9	4	3	2	+8	+0.0	15
6	Lazio	10	5	0	5	+1	+3.3	15
7	Bologna	9	4	3	2	+0	-1.6	15
8	Genoa	9	4	2	3	-4	-3.9	14
9	Empoli	10	3	4	3	+1	-5.9	13
10	Torino	10	3	3	4	-2	-1.6	12
11	Udinese	10	3	3	4	-3	-4.7	12
12	Milan	8	3	2	3	+0	+3.1	11
13	Cagliari	10	2	3	5	-4	-5.5	9
14	Verona	10	3	0	7	-9	-9.4	9
15	Parma	10	1	5	4	-8	-9.7	8
16	Monza	9	1	4	4	-3	-3.0	7
17	Como	11	1	4	6	-9	-0.7	7
18	Lecce	10	2	1	7	-10	-10.0	7
19	Roma	10	0	6	4	-8	-5.0	6
20	Venezia	10	0	3	7	-13	-13.7	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.