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Serie A
Referee: G Ayroldi
Genoa
U S T S U
0–2
Full-time
Lazio
U S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Genoa Lazio
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,5
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
17%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
1,5
2,7
Scored
0,8
1,0
Conceded
0,7
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,2
-0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Serie A · 32/32 matches
Win Ø 39%
28%
50%
Points per game
1,2
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
34%
66%
Both score Ø 55%
44%
66%
Average goals
2,1
3,0
Scored
0,9
1,7
Conceded
1,2
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,65 xG 1,10
38% Possession 62%
8 Shots 15
4 Shots on target 6
0 Blocked shots 3
4 Goalkeeper saves 4
6 Corners 8
0 Offside 2
16 Free kicks against 10
3 Yellow cards 1
1 Red cards 1
The table before the match Genoa 13. · Lazio 7.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Inter 33 21 8 4 +40 +31.5 71
2 Napoli 33 21 8 4 +27 +19.6 71
3 Atalanta 33 19 7 7 +36 +23.9 64
4 Bologna 33 16 12 5 +15 +11.9 60
5 Juventus 32 15 14 3 +19 +13.0 59
6 Roma 33 16 9 8 +16 +11.6 57
7 Lazio 32 16 8 8 +10 +13.4 56
8 Fiorentina 32 15 8 9 +17 +4.7 53
9 Milan 33 14 9 10 +13 +19.0 51
10 Torino 32 9 13 10 -1 -14.5 40
11 Udinese 32 11 7 14 -10 -9.2 40
12 Como 33 10 9 14 -5 +2.8 39
13 Genoa 32 9 12 11 -9 -7.7 39
14 Verona 33 9 5 19 -30 -16.9 32
15 Cagliari 32 7 9 16 -15 -11.7 30
16 Parma 32 5 13 14 -14 -15.1 28
17 Lecce 33 6 8 19 -32 -21.9 26
18 Venezia 33 4 13 16 -19 -17.2 25
19 Empoli 33 4 13 16 -26 -16.4 25
20 Monza 33 2 9 22 -32 -20.8 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Genoa Lazio
Sebastian Otoa 🟥
21′
32′
V. Castellanos 0–1
L. Pellegrini
45′
🔁 Pedro
↦ M. Lazzari
Half-time 0–1
48′
🟨 Nicolò Rovella
Andrea Pinamonti 🟨
51′
L. Venturino 🔁
↦ Vítinha
61′
65′
B. Dia 0–2
N. Rovella
H. Ahanor 🔁
↦ Aarón Martín
68′
Junior Messias 🔁
↦ A. Pinamonti
68′
68′
🔁 M. Vecino
↦ B. Dia
69′
🔁 R. Belahyane
↦ N. Rovella
72′
🟥 Reda Belahyane
72′
ℹ️ Reda Belahyane
VAR: Card upgrade
Koni De Winter 🟨
80′
J. Ekhator 🔁
↦ P. Masini
80′
S. Sabelli 🔁
↦ B. Norton-Cuffy
80′
Stefano Sabelli 🟨
85′
89′
🔁 T. Noslin
↦ V. Castellanos
89′
🔁 E. Hysaj
↦ M. Zaccagni
Full-time 0–2

Line-ups

Genoa

4-4-2
1 N. Leali G
34 S. Otoa D
4 K. De Winter D
22 J. Vásquez D
3 Aarón Martín D
15 B. Norton-Cuffy M
73 P. Masini M
32 M. Frendrup M
2 M. Thorsby M
19 A. Pinamonti F
9 Vítinha F
Bench (13)
76 L. Venturino
69 H. Ahanor
10 Junior Messias
21 J. Ekhator
20 S. Sabelli
31 B. Siegrist
86 J. Nuredini
67 M. Barbini
39 D. Sommariva
59 A. Zanoli
53 L. Kassa
47 M. Badelj
13 M. Bani

Coach: P. Vieira

Lazio

4-2-3-1
35 C. Mandas G
29 M. Lazzari D
34 Mario Gila D
13 A. Romagnoli D
3 L. Pellegrini D
8 M. Guendouzi M
6 N. Rovella M
77 A. Marušić M
19 B. Dia M
10 M. Zaccagni M
11 V. Castellanos F
Bench (13)
9 Pedro
5 M. Vecino
21 R. Belahyane
14 T. Noslin
23 E. Hysaj
25 O. Provstgaard
7 F. Dele-Bashiru
26 T. Bašić
20 L. Tchaouna
27 A. Ibrahimović
2 S. Gigot
55 A. Furlanetto
94 I. Provedel

Coach: M. Baroni

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,37
U
3,14
B ✓
2,29
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,35
U2,5 ✓
1,59
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

G Ayroldi · 86 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
28,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,37 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.