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Serie A

Referee: Livio Marinelli

Inter

T S T T S

2–1

Full-time

Sassuolo

T S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Inter Sassuolo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

4,0

2,0

Scored

2,2

0,7

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

100%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

5,0

2,7

Scored

3,0

1,0

Conceded

2,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,89 xG 0,89

61% Possession 39%

20 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 3

2 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Inter 12. · Sassuolo 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	4	3	1	0	+4	+0.9	10
2	Milan	4	3	0	1	+5	+5.2	9
3	Napoli	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.5	9
4	Roma	4	3	0	1	+2	+1.8	9
5	Atalanta	4	2	2	0	+6	+3.5	8
6	Cremonese	4	2	2	0	+2	-1.7	8
7	Como	4	2	1	1	+2	+0.9	7
8	Cagliari	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.5	7
9	Udinese	4	2	1	1	-1	-1.2	7
10	Bologna	4	2	0	2	+0	-0.3	6
11	Torino	4	1	1	2	-7	-2.3	4
12	Inter	3	1	0	2	+3	+1.7	3
13	Lazio	4	1	0	3	+0	+1.6	3
14	Sassuolo	3	1	0	2	-2	-2.4	3
15	Verona	4	0	3	1	-4	-1.1	3
16	Genoa	4	0	2	2	-2	-0.9	2
17	Fiorentina	4	0	2	2	-3	-1.8	2
18	Parma	4	0	2	2	-4	-0.3	2
19	Pisa	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.0	1
20	Lecce	4	0	1	3	-6	-4.6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.5	6
2	Bologna	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.5	6
3	Atalanta	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.0	4
4	Cagliari	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.7	4
5	Como	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.6	4
6	Cremonese	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.3	4
7	Inter	2	1	0	1	+4	+1.4	3
8	Lazio	2	1	0	1	+3	+3.1	3
9	Napoli	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.1	3
10	Milan	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.5	3
11	Roma	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.5	3
12	Sassuolo	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.4	3
13	Verona	2	0	2	0	+0	+2.3	2
14	Parma	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
15	Genoa	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
16	Udinese	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.9	1
17	Torino	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.2	1
18	Pisa	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.7	0
19	Fiorentina	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.4	0
20	Lecce	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.6	6
2	Napoli	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.5	6
3	Udinese	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.3	6
4	Roma	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.3	6
5	Atalanta	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.6	4
6	Cremonese	2	1	1	0	+1	-2.9	4
7	Juventus	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.6	4
8	Como	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.3	3
9	Cagliari	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
10	Torino	2	1	0	1	-4	-1.1	3
11	Fiorentina	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.6	2
12	Pisa	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
13	Genoa	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.5	1
14	Lecce	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.8	1
15	Verona	2	0	1	1	-4	-3.4	1
16	Parma	3	0	1	2	-4	-0.2	1
17	Inter	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
18	Sassuolo	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
19	Bologna	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.8	0
20	Lazio	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.