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Primeira Liga

Referee: Gustavo Correia

Tondela

T T T U T

0–0

Full-time

Estrela

U T U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Estrela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,2

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

0,5

Conceded

2,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,2

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

60%

20%

Both score Ø 30%

20%

40%

Average goals

2,4

1,8

Scored

0,4

0,6

Conceded

2,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,6

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,15 xG 1,08

54% Possession 46%

17 Shots 8

8 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 8

5 Corners 2

5 Offside 3

16 Free kicks against 13

4 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 17. · Estrela 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	6	6	0	0	+14	+9.2	18
2	Benfica	5	4	1	0	+8	+5.8	13
3	Sp Lisbon	5	4	0	1	+11	+7.7	12
4	Moreirense	5	4	0	1	+4	+2.4	12
5	Famalicao	5	3	1	1	+4	-1.1	10
6	Gil Vicente	5	3	1	1	+3	+0.4	10
7	Sp Braga	6	2	3	1	+5	+3.4	9
8	Guimaraes	6	2	2	2	-2	-1.6	8
9	Santa Clara	6	2	2	2	-2	+0.7	8
10	Arouca	6	2	2	2	-5	-6.0	8
11	Casa Pia	5	2	0	3	-4	-3.9	6
12	Estoril	5	1	2	2	+0	-2.5	5
13	Alverca	6	1	1	4	-5	-2.5	4
14	Nacional	6	1	1	4	-5	-2.2	4
15	Estrela	5	0	3	2	-3	-0.8	3
16	Rio Ave	5	0	3	2	-5	-2.1	3
17	Tondela	5	0	1	4	-8	-2.4	1
18	AVS	6	0	1	5	-10	-4.4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	3	3	0	0	+8	+6.4	9
2	Moreirense	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.8	9
3	Guimaraes	3	1	2	0	+1	+0.7	5
4	Benfica	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.2	4
5	Sp Braga	3	1	1	1	+2	+3.2	4
6	Famalicao	3	1	1	1	+2	-1.4	4
7	Estoril	3	1	1	1	+1	-0.9	4
8	Arouca	3	1	1	1	+0	-2.1	4
9	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.1	4
10	Sp Lisbon	2	1	0	1	+5	+2.0	3
11	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.2	3
12	Alverca	3	1	0	2	-3	-0.0	3
13	Rio Ave	3	0	2	1	-3	-2.3	2
14	Tondela	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.7	1
15	Estrela	3	0	1	2	-3	-0.6	1
16	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.0	0
17	Nacional	3	0	0	3	-6	-0.4	0
18	AVS	3	0	0	3	-6	-1.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+6	+5.6	9
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+6	+2.9	9
3	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+5	+2.5	9
4	Gil Vicente	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.6	7
5	Famalicao	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.4	6
6	Casa Pia	3	2	0	1	+0	-0.9	6
7	Sp Braga	3	1	2	0	+3	+0.2	5
8	Nacional	3	1	1	1	+1	-1.8	4
9	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	-2	-0.4	4
10	Arouca	3	1	1	1	-5	-3.9	4
11	Moreirense	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.6	3
12	Guimaraes	3	1	0	2	-3	-2.3	3
13	Estrela	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
14	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.6	1
15	Alverca	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.5	1
16	Rio Ave	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.2	1
17	AVS	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.6	1
18	Tondela	3	0	0	3	-7	-3.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.