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Serie A

Referee: J Sacchi

Atalanta

S T S T T

3–2

Full-time

Fiorentina

U U U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

3,7

3,2

Scored

2,2

1,7

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

100%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

3,7

2,0

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–2

1,65 xG 1,95

51% Possession 49%

13 Shots 13

7 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 2

2 Offside 4

16 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 13. · Fiorentina 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	4	2	2	0	+6	+2.2	8
2	Inter	3	2	1	0	+6	+1.9	7
3	Torino	3	2	1	0	+2	-1.7	7
4	Udinese	3	2	1	0	+2	-3.4	7
5	Verona	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.2	6
6	Napoli	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.4	6
7	Empoli	4	1	3	0	+1	+0.0	6
8	Milan	4	1	2	1	+3	+2.6	5
9	Genoa	4	1	2	1	-1	-0.6	5
10	Lazio	3	1	1	1	+1	+3.0	4
11	Parma	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.4	4
12	Fiorentina	3	0	3	0	+0	+1.0	3
13	Atalanta	3	1	0	2	-1	+1.0	3
14	Roma	4	0	3	1	-1	+0.1	3
15	Bologna	4	0	3	1	-3	+0.9	3
16	Lecce	3	1	0	2	-5	-2.5	3
17	Monza	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.1	2
18	Cagliari	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.5	2
19	Como	4	0	2	2	-4	+0.4	2
20	Venezia	4	0	1	3	-7	-4.2	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	2	2	0	0	+6	+2.1	6
2	Napoli	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.3	6
3	Udinese	2	2	0	0	+2	-1.2	6
4	Milan	2	1	1	0	+4	+3.1	4
5	Juventus	2	1	1	0	+3	+1.1	4
6	Lazio	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.5	4
7	Parma	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.8	4
8	Torino	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
9	Verona	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
10	Lecce	2	1	0	1	-3	-0.3	3
11	Fiorentina	2	0	2	0	+0	+2.0	2
12	Bologna	2	0	2	0	+0	+2.7	2
13	Cagliari	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.7	2
14	Empoli	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.3	2
15	Genoa	3	0	2	1	-2	-0.8	2
16	Como	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.0	1
17	Roma	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
18	Venezia	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
19	Monza	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	2	1	1	0	+3	+1.1	4
2	Torino	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.9	4
3	Empoli	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.3	4
4	Verona	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.0	3
5	Genoa	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
6	Roma	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.8	3
7	Atalanta	3	1	0	2	-1	+1.0	3
8	Monza	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.9	2
9	Inter	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
10	Fiorentina	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
11	Udinese	1	0	1	0	+0	-2.3	1
12	Milan	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.6	1
13	Bologna	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.8	1
14	Como	3	0	1	2	-4	+0.4	1
15	Venezia	3	0	1	2	-6	-4.0	1
16	Parma	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
17	Lazio	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.5	0
18	Cagliari	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
19	Lecce	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.1	0
20	Napoli	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.