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Serie A

Referee: D Orsato

Atalanta

S T S S S

2–3

Full-time

Fiorentina

U S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

17%

83%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

2,2

1,5

Conceded

0,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 50%

57%

43%

Points per game

1,9

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

65%

51%

Both score Ø 53%

51%

54%

Average goals

2,9

2,8

Scored

1,9

1,6

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–3

1,77 xG 1,24

54% Possession 46%

12 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 4

5 Offside 4

5 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 4. · Fiorentina 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	38	29	7	2	+67	+47.6	94
2	Milan	38	22	9	7	+27	+20.7	75
3	Juventus	38	19	14	5	+23	+25.5	71
4	Atalanta	37	21	6	10	+31	+16.4	69
5	Bologna	38	18	14	6	+22	+11.2	68
6	Roma	38	18	9	11	+19	+9.7	63
7	Lazio	38	18	7	13	+10	+4.1	61
8	Fiorentina	37	16	9	12	+14	+4.7	57
9	Napoli	38	13	14	11	+7	+23.0	53
10	Torino	38	13	14	11	+0	+0.8	53
11	Genoa	38	12	13	13	+0	-7.0	49
12	Monza	38	11	12	15	-12	-16.7	45
13	Verona	38	9	11	18	-13	-10.9	38
14	Lecce	38	8	14	16	-22	-10.8	38
15	Udinese	38	6	19	13	-16	-9.0	37
16	Empoli	38	9	9	20	-25	-17.6	36
17	Cagliari	38	8	12	18	-26	-11.7	36
18	Frosinone	38	8	11	19	-25	-13.4	35
19	Sassuolo	38	7	9	22	-32	-21.6	30
20	Salernitana	38	2	11	25	-49	-44.7	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	19	14	4	1	+33	+28.5	46
2	Atalanta	18	13	2	3	+27	+16.8	41
3	Bologna	19	12	5	2	+21	+9.9	41
4	Milan	19	12	4	3	+21	+13.4	40
5	Roma	19	12	4	3	+19	+12.5	40
6	Juventus	19	11	7	1	+15	+19.6	40
7	Fiorentina	19	10	5	4	+15	+10.4	35
8	Lazio	19	10	4	5	+9	+8.9	34
9	Torino	19	8	9	2	+9	+7.3	33
10	Genoa	19	8	6	5	+5	-1.5	30
11	Napoli	19	6	7	6	-3	+13.4	25
12	Cagliari	19	6	7	6	-4	+4.8	25
13	Frosinone	19	7	4	8	-4	-3.7	25
14	Verona	19	6	6	7	-3	-4.9	24
15	Monza	19	6	6	7	-3	-6.3	24
16	Lecce	19	6	6	7	-10	-1.0	24
17	Empoli	19	5	5	9	-8	-5.2	20
18	Sassuolo	19	5	5	9	-11	-10.8	20
19	Udinese	19	1	11	7	-8	-1.2	14
20	Salernitana	19	1	5	13	-21	-17.4	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	19	15	3	1	+34	+19.1	48
2	Milan	19	10	5	4	+6	+7.3	35
3	Juventus	19	8	7	4	+8	+5.9	31
4	Napoli	19	7	7	5	+10	+9.6	28
5	Atalanta	19	8	4	7	+4	-0.4	28
6	Lazio	19	8	3	8	+1	-4.8	27
7	Bologna	19	6	9	4	+1	+1.4	27
8	Roma	19	6	5	8	+0	-2.9	23
9	Udinese	19	5	8	6	-8	-7.8	23
10	Fiorentina	18	6	4	8	-1	-5.7	22
11	Monza	19	5	6	8	-9	-10.4	21
12	Torino	19	5	5	9	-9	-6.5	20
13	Genoa	19	4	7	8	-5	-5.5	19
14	Empoli	19	4	4	11	-17	-12.4	16
15	Verona	19	3	5	11	-10	-5.9	14
16	Lecce	19	2	8	9	-12	-9.8	14
17	Cagliari	19	2	5	12	-22	-16.6	11
18	Sassuolo	19	2	4	13	-21	-10.7	10
19	Frosinone	19	1	7	11	-21	-9.8	10
20	Salernitana	19	1	6	12	-28	-27.4	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.