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Premier League

Referee: R Jones

Brighton

U T T S S

1–1

Full-time

Southampton

T S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,2

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 29%

50%

Points per game

1,8

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

75%

50%

Both score Ø 63%

75%

50%

Average goals

3,1

2,8

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

1,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,68 xG 1,01

52% Possession 48%

22 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 6

3 Offside 1

20 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 5. · Southampton 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	12	10	1	1	+16	+13.1	31
2	Man City	12	7	2	3	+5	+8.6	23
3	Chelsea	12	6	4	2	+9	+6.4	22
4	Arsenal	12	6	4	2	+9	+6.0	22
5	Brighton	12	6	4	2	+5	-2.6	22
6	Tottenham	12	6	1	5	+14	+8.9	19
7	Nott'm Forest	12	5	4	3	+2	+2.4	19
8	Aston Villa	12	5	4	3	+0	+5.1	19
9	Fulham	12	5	3	4	+0	+4.1	18
10	Newcastle	12	5	3	4	+0	+2.5	18
11	Brentford	12	5	2	5	+0	-1.7	17
12	Man United	12	4	4	4	+0	-0.4	16
13	Bournemouth	12	4	3	5	-1	+4.8	15
14	West Ham	12	4	3	5	-4	-3.8	15
15	Everton	12	2	5	5	-7	-3.7	11
16	Leicester	12	2	4	6	-8	-11.0	10
17	Wolves	12	2	3	7	-8	-8.1	9
18	Ipswich	12	1	6	5	-10	-13.6	9
19	Crystal Palace	12	1	5	6	-7	-4.3	8
20	Southampton	12	1	1	10	-15	-12.8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brentford	6	5	1	0	+7	+5.9	16
2	Liverpool	6	5	0	1	+8	+6.0	15
3	Arsenal	6	4	2	0	+9	+8.5	14
4	Man City	6	4	1	1	+2	+7.1	13
5	Tottenham	6	4	0	2	+10	+5.8	12
6	Brighton	6	3	3	0	+3	+2.0	12
7	Bournemouth	6	3	1	2	+3	+4.7	10
8	Newcastle	6	3	1	2	+0	+0.9	10
9	Fulham	6	3	1	2	-1	+3.3	10
10	Man United	6	3	1	2	-1	-0.6	10
11	Aston Villa	6	2	3	1	+1	+6.1	9
12	Chelsea	6	2	3	1	+1	+6.5	9
13	Nott'm Forest	6	2	2	2	+1	+1.6	8
14	West Ham	6	2	1	3	-2	+0.3	7
15	Everton	6	1	3	2	-3	-3.0	6
16	Leicester	6	1	2	3	-3	-5.7	5
17	Crystal Palace	6	1	2	3	-4	-0.4	5
18	Ipswich	6	0	4	2	-4	-2.6	4
19	Wolves	6	1	1	4	-5	-2.9	4
20	Southampton	6	1	1	4	-5	-6.8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	6	5	1	0	+8	+7.1	16
2	Chelsea	6	4	1	1	+8	-0.1	13
3	Nott'm Forest	6	3	2	1	+1	+0.8	11
4	Man City	6	3	1	2	+3	+1.5	10
5	Brighton	6	3	1	2	+2	-4.5	10
6	Aston Villa	6	3	1	2	-1	-1.0	10
7	Fulham	6	2	2	2	+1	+0.8	8
8	Newcastle	6	2	2	2	+0	+1.6	8
9	Arsenal	6	2	2	2	+0	-2.5	8
10	West Ham	6	2	2	2	-2	-4.1	8
11	Tottenham	6	2	1	3	+4	+3.1	7
12	Man United	6	1	3	2	+1	+0.2	6
13	Wolves	6	1	2	3	-3	-5.2	5
14	Bournemouth	6	1	2	3	-4	+0.2	5
15	Everton	6	1	2	3	-4	-0.6	5
16	Leicester	6	1	2	3	-5	-5.3	5
17	Ipswich	6	1	2	3	-6	-11.0	5
18	Crystal Palace	6	0	3	3	-3	-3.9	3
19	Brentford	6	0	1	5	-7	-7.6	1
20	Southampton	6	0	0	6	-10	-6.0	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.