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League Cup

Referee: L Smith

Southampton

U T T T T

3–2

Full-time

Stoke

S U U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — League Cup · 2/3 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

100%

33%

Average goals

5,0

3,0

Scored

3,0

2,7

Conceded

2,0

0,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+2,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

78% Possession 22%

12 Shots 6

5 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 1

4 Offside 0

5 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 16. · Stoke 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield Weds	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Stoke	3	2	1	0	+7	7
3	Preston	3	2	1	0	+7	7
4	Fleetwood Town	3	2	1	0	+2	7
5	Watford	3	2	0	1	+6	6
6	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+5	6
7	Crystal Palace	2	2	0	0	+5	6
8	Blackpool	3	2	0	1	+4	6
9	Brentford	2	2	0	0	+3	6
10	Leyton Orient	3	2	0	1	+2	6
11	Wycombe	3	2	0	1	+2	6
12	Coventry	3	2	0	1	+1	6
13	Walsall	3	1	2	0	+1	5
14	Leicester	2	1	1	0	+4	4
15	Everton	2	1	1	0	+3	4
16	Southampton	2	1	1	0	+2	4
17	Fulham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
18	Newcastle	2	1	1	0	+1	4
19	Derby	2	1	1	0	+1	4
20	AFC Wimbledon	3	1	1	1	+0	4
21	QPR	3	1	1	1	+0	4
22	Bolton	3	1	1	1	-2	4
23	Barrow	3	1	1	1	-4	4
24	Barnsley	3	1	1	1	-6	4
25	Man United	1	1	0	0	+7	3
26	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+5	3
27	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+4	3
28	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+4	3
29	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+4	3
30	Huddersfield	2	1	0	1	+2	3
31	Sheffield United	2	1	0	1	+1	3
32	Wolves	2	1	0	1	+1	3
33	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+1	3
34	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+1	3
35	Man City	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Oxford	2	1	0	1	+1	3
38	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	3
40	Rotherham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
41	Millwall	2	1	0	1	+0	3
42	Tranmere	2	1	0	1	-1	3
43	Doncaster	2	1	0	1	-1	3
44	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	-1	3
45	Crawley Town	2	1	0	1	-2	3
46	Middlesbrough	2	1	0	1	-2	3
47	Norwich	2	1	0	1	-3	3
48	West Ham	2	1	0	1	-3	3
49	Harrogate Town	2	1	0	1	-4	3
50	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Nott'm Forest	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Luton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	Mansfield Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
57	Exeter City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
58	Bradford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
59	Colchester	2	0	1	1	-1	1
60	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-2	1
61	Grimsby	2	0	1	1	-4	1
62	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Bromley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Cambridge United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-3	0
86	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-3	0
87	Morecambe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
88	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-3	0
89	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-3	0
90	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-4	0
91	Stockport County	1	0	0	1	-5	0
92	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Fleetwood Town	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Walsall	3	1	2	0	+1	5
5	Everton	2	1	1	0	+3	4
6	Preston	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Barrow	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Man United	1	1	0	0	+7	3
9	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+5	3
10	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+4	3
11	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+4	3
12	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+4	3
13	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+4	3
14	Leyton Orient	1	1	0	0	+3	3
15	Huddersfield	1	1	0	0	+3	3
16	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+3	3
17	Tranmere	1	1	0	0	+3	3
18	Sheffield United	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Crawley Town	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Oxford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+1	3
25	Man City	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Rotherham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Barnsley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	3
32	Coventry	2	1	0	1	+0	3
33	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Nott'm Forest	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	QPR	2	0	1	1	-1	1
39	Colchester	2	0	1	1	-1	1
40	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-2	1
41	Grimsby	2	0	1	1	-4	1
42	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Bromley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Cambridge United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Birmingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-3	0
58	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-4	0
59	Stockport County	1	0	0	1	-5	0
60	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-5	0
61	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield Weds	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+7	6
3	Blackpool	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Wycombe	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Southampton	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Fulham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+5	3
8	Preston	1	1	0	0	+5	3
9	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Harrogate Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	QPR	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	AFC Wimbledon	2	1	0	1	+0	3
20	Doncaster	2	1	0	1	-1	3
21	Leyton Orient	2	1	0	1	-1	3
22	Bolton	2	1	0	1	-2	3
23	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Newcastle	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Fleetwood Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Luton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Mansfield Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Exeter City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Bradford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Derby	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Barnsley	2	0	1	1	-7	1
35	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-3	0
56	Morecambe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
57	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-3	0
58	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-3	0
59	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-4	0
60	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-4	0
61	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-4	0
62	Tranmere	1	0	0	1	-4	0
63	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-5	0
64	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.