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Premier League

Referee: R Jones

Brighton

T U S S T

2–2

Full-time

Southampton

T U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,8

Scored

0,5

0,7

Conceded

1,3

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,5

This season — Premier League · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 27%

27%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

27%

52%

Both score Ø 52%

45%

58%

Average goals

2,1

2,8

Scored

0,9

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

49% Possession 51%

8 Shots 18

5 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 7

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 6

2 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 12. · Southampton 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	33	25	5	3	+59	80
2	Liverpool	32	23	7	2	+61	76
3	Chelsea	31	18	8	5	+39	62
4	Arsenal	33	19	3	11	+12	60
5	Tottenham	33	18	4	11	+18	58
6	Man United	34	15	9	10	+2	54
7	West Ham	33	15	7	11	+9	52
8	Wolves	32	15	4	13	+5	49
9	Newcastle	34	11	10	13	-15	43
10	Leicester	32	11	9	12	-4	42
11	Brentford	34	11	7	16	-8	40
12	Brighton	33	9	13	11	-11	40
13	Southampton	33	9	12	12	-16	39
14	Crystal Palace	32	8	13	11	+2	37
15	Aston Villa	32	11	4	17	-4	37
16	Leeds	32	8	9	15	-30	33
17	Everton	31	8	5	18	-19	29
18	Burnley	32	5	13	14	-17	28
19	Watford	33	6	4	23	-36	22
20	Norwich	33	5	6	22	-47	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	16	13	3	0	+36	42
2	Man City	17	13	2	2	+37	41
3	Arsenal	17	11	2	4	+13	35
4	Tottenham	16	10	1	5	+13	31
5	West Ham	17	9	4	4	+8	31
6	Man United	17	9	4	4	+7	31
7	Leicester	16	8	4	4	+6	28
8	Newcastle	17	7	6	4	-2	27
9	Chelsea	15	7	5	3	+13	26
10	Southampton	17	6	7	4	+1	25
11	Wolves	16	7	2	7	+2	23
12	Everton	16	7	2	7	+1	23
13	Crystal Palace	16	5	7	4	+8	22
14	Brentford	17	6	3	8	-1	21
15	Aston Villa	15	5	3	7	-1	18
16	Burnley	16	4	6	6	-5	18
17	Leeds	16	4	5	7	-12	17
18	Brighton	16	3	6	7	-10	15
19	Norwich	17	3	3	11	-22	12
20	Watford	16	2	1	13	-24	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	16	12	3	1	+22	39
2	Chelsea	16	11	3	2	+26	36
3	Liverpool	16	10	4	2	+25	34
4	Tottenham	17	8	3	6	+5	27
5	Wolves	16	8	2	6	+3	26
6	Arsenal	16	8	1	7	-1	25
7	Brighton	17	6	7	4	-1	25
8	Man United	17	6	5	6	-5	23
9	West Ham	16	6	3	7	+1	21
10	Aston Villa	17	6	1	10	-3	19
11	Brentford	17	5	4	8	-7	19
12	Newcastle	17	4	4	9	-13	16
13	Leeds	16	4	4	8	-18	16
14	Crystal Palace	16	3	6	7	-6	15
15	Watford	17	4	3	10	-12	15
16	Leicester	16	3	5	8	-10	14
17	Southampton	16	3	5	8	-17	14
18	Burnley	16	1	7	8	-12	10
19	Norwich	16	2	3	11	-25	9
20	Everton	15	1	3	11	-20	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.