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Premier League

Referee: S Attwell

Southampton

U T T S T

1–2

Full-time

Brighton

U U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

1,7

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,3

This season — Premier League · 28/27 matches

Win Ø 26%

32%

19%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

43%

44%

Both score Ø 50%

43%

56%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

59% Possession 41%

9 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 5

1 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 14. · Brighton 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	30	22	5	3	+43	71
2	Man United	28	15	9	4	+23	54
3	Leicester	28	16	5	7	+16	53
4	Chelsea	29	14	9	6	+19	51
5	West Ham	27	14	6	7	+11	48
6	Everton	28	14	4	10	+3	46
7	Tottenham	27	13	6	8	+18	45
8	Liverpool	28	12	7	9	+11	43
9	Aston Villa	27	12	5	10	+11	41
10	Arsenal	27	11	5	11	+7	38
11	Crystal Palace	29	10	7	12	-16	37
12	Leeds	28	11	3	14	-3	36
13	Wolves	28	9	8	11	-9	35
14	Southampton	28	9	6	13	-14	33
15	Burnley	29	8	9	12	-15	33
16	Newcastle	28	7	7	14	-17	28
17	Brighton	27	5	11	11	-8	26
18	Fulham	29	5	11	13	-14	26
19	West Brom	29	3	9	17	-37	18
20	Sheffield United	28	4	2	22	-29	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	16	12	2	2	+23	38
2	West Ham	14	8	3	3	+8	27
3	Chelsea	14	7	5	2	+14	26
4	Tottenham	14	7	3	4	+11	24
5	Liverpool	15	7	2	6	+4	23
6	Man United	13	6	3	4	+9	21
7	Crystal Palace	15	5	5	5	-6	20
8	Leicester	13	6	1	6	+1	19
9	Wolves	13	5	4	4	+1	19
10	Leeds	14	5	3	6	+2	18
11	Arsenal	13	5	3	5	+2	18
12	Burnley	15	4	6	5	-4	18
13	Aston Villa	12	5	2	5	+4	17
14	Southampton	13	5	2	6	+1	17
15	Everton	14	5	2	7	-3	17
16	Newcastle	14	4	4	6	-6	16
17	West Brom	15	2	5	8	-24	11
18	Brighton	14	1	7	6	-6	10
19	Sheffield United	15	3	1	11	-12	10
20	Fulham	15	2	4	9	-13	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	15	10	4	1	+15	34
2	Man City	14	10	3	1	+20	33
3	Man United	15	9	6	0	+14	33
4	Everton	14	9	2	3	+6	29
5	Chelsea	15	7	4	4	+5	25
6	Aston Villa	15	7	3	5	+7	24
7	Tottenham	13	6	3	4	+7	21
8	West Ham	13	6	3	4	+3	21
9	Liverpool	13	5	5	3	+7	20
10	Arsenal	14	6	2	6	+5	20
11	Leeds	14	6	0	8	-5	18
12	Crystal Palace	14	5	2	7	-10	17
13	Fulham	14	3	7	4	-1	16
14	Brighton	13	4	4	5	-2	16
15	Wolves	15	4	4	7	-10	16
16	Southampton	15	4	4	7	-15	16
17	Burnley	14	4	3	7	-11	15
18	Newcastle	14	3	3	8	-11	12
19	West Brom	14	1	4	9	-13	7
20	Sheffield United	13	1	1	11	-17	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.