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Ligue 1

Referee: M Lesage

Lorient

S U T S T

1–0

Full-time

Metz

U T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lorient Metz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

4,0

2,8

Scored

1,8

0,7

Conceded

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,5

This season — Ligue 1 · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 18%

22%

13%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

41%

50%

Both score Ø 53%

53%

Average goals

2,6

2,7

Scored

1,0

0,9

Conceded

1,6

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

42% Possession 58%

15 Shots 20

5 Shots on target 5

7 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

10 Corners 12

3 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lorient 16. · Metz 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	32	23	5	4	+42	74
2	Marseille	32	17	8	7	+21	59
3	Rennes	32	17	5	10	+35	56
4	Nice	32	16	7	9	+14	55
5	Strasbourg	32	14	11	7	+19	53
6	Monaco	32	15	8	9	+16	53
7	Lyon	32	13	11	8	+9	50
8	Lens	32	14	8	10	+9	50
9	Lille	32	12	12	8	+2	48
10	Nantes	32	13	8	11	+6	47
11	Montpellier	32	12	6	14	+0	42
12	Brest	32	10	9	13	-7	39
13	Reims	32	8	13	11	-1	37
14	Angers	32	8	10	14	-10	34
15	Troyes	32	8	9	15	-15	33
16	Lorient	32	7	10	15	-20	31
17	St Etienne	32	7	9	16	-27	30
18	Clermont	32	7	8	17	-29	29
19	Bordeaux	32	5	11	16	-35	26
20	Metz	32	4	12	16	-29	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	15	1	0	+32	46
2	Rennes	16	11	1	4	+28	34
3	Lyon	17	9	5	3	+13	32
4	Monaco	16	9	4	3	+17	31
5	Strasbourg	16	9	4	3	+16	31
6	Nantes	16	9	3	4	+10	30
7	Lens	16	8	5	3	+13	29
8	Nice	16	8	4	4	+5	28
9	Marseille	16	7	5	4	+9	26
10	Montpellier	17	7	4	6	+5	25
11	Lille	16	6	7	3	+2	25
12	Lorient	15	5	5	5	+1	20
13	Angers	16	6	2	8	-2	20
14	Troyes	16	4	7	5	+0	19
15	Brest	15	5	4	6	-1	19
16	Reims	15	4	6	5	+4	18
17	St Etienne	17	4	6	7	-10	18
18	Bordeaux	16	3	5	8	-7	14
19	Clermont	16	3	5	8	-11	14
20	Metz	16	1	7	8	-11	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Marseille	16	10	3	3	+12	33
2	Paris SG	16	8	4	4	+10	28
3	Nice	16	8	3	5	+9	27
4	Lille	16	6	5	5	+0	23
5	Rennes	16	6	4	6	+7	22
6	Strasbourg	16	5	7	4	+3	22
7	Monaco	16	6	4	6	-1	22
8	Lens	16	6	3	7	-4	21
9	Brest	17	5	5	7	-6	20
10	Reims	17	4	7	6	-5	19
11	Lyon	15	4	6	5	-4	18
12	Nantes	16	4	5	7	-4	17
13	Montpellier	15	5	2	8	-5	17
14	Clermont	16	4	3	9	-18	15
15	Angers	16	2	8	6	-8	14
16	Troyes	16	4	2	10	-15	14
17	Metz	16	3	5	8	-18	14
18	St Etienne	15	3	3	9	-17	12
19	Bordeaux	16	2	6	8	-28	12
20	Lorient	17	2	5	10	-21	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.