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Ligue 1

Referee: R Buquet

Montpellier

T T U U S

1–2

Full-time

Marseille

U T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Montpellier Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,2

3,8

Scored

0,8

2,3

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,8

This season — Ligue 1 · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 47%

31%

63%

Points per game

1,1

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

63%

56%

Both score Ø 60%

63%

56%

Average goals

3,4

2,9

Scored

1,6

2,0

Conceded

1,8

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

40% Possession 60%

8 Shots 18

1 Shots on target 9

4 Blocked shots 6

6 Goalkeeper saves 0

5 Corners 7

3 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Montpellier 14. · Marseille 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	17	14	2	1	+33	44
2	Lens	17	12	4	1	+18	40
3	Marseille	16	10	3	3	+18	33
4	Monaco	17	10	3	4	+10	33
5	Rennes	16	9	4	3	+15	31
6	Lorient	17	9	4	4	+4	31
7	Lille	17	9	3	5	+6	30
8	Lyon	17	7	3	7	+6	24
9	Clermont	17	6	4	7	-5	22
10	Nice	16	5	6	5	-2	21
11	Reims	17	4	9	4	-3	21
12	Toulouse	17	5	4	8	-10	19
13	Troyes	17	4	6	7	-4	18
14	Montpellier	16	5	2	9	-3	17
15	Nantes	17	3	8	6	-6	17
16	Ajaccio	17	4	3	10	-11	15
17	Brest	17	3	4	10	-15	13
18	Auxerre	17	3	4	10	-19	13
19	Strasbourg	17	1	8	8	-11	11
20	Angers	17	2	2	13	-21	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lens	9	9	0	0	+14	27
2	Paris SG	8	7	1	0	+13	22
3	Rennes	8	7	0	1	+15	21
4	Marseille	9	6	1	2	+10	19
5	Lyon	9	5	2	2	+9	17
6	Lille	9	5	2	2	+0	17
7	Toulouse	9	4	3	2	+1	15
8	Monaco	9	4	2	3	+1	14
9	Nantes	8	3	4	1	+3	13
10	Lorient	8	4	1	3	+1	13
11	Reims	8	3	3	2	-1	12
12	Montpellier	8	3	1	4	-2	10
13	Clermont	8	3	1	4	-7	10
14	Troyes	8	1	6	1	-1	9
15	Auxerre	8	2	3	3	-3	9
16	Nice	8	2	3	3	-3	9
17	Ajaccio	8	2	1	5	-6	7
18	Brest	8	1	3	4	-10	6
19	Strasbourg	9	0	5	4	-7	5
20	Angers	9	1	1	7	-10	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	9	7	1	1	+20	22
2	Monaco	8	6	1	1	+9	19
3	Lorient	9	5	3	1	+3	18
4	Marseille	7	4	2	1	+8	14
5	Lille	8	4	1	3	+6	13
6	Lens	8	3	4	1	+4	13
7	Clermont	9	3	3	3	+2	12
8	Nice	8	3	3	2	+1	12
9	Rennes	8	2	4	2	+0	10
10	Reims	9	1	6	2	-2	9
11	Troyes	9	3	0	6	-3	9
12	Ajaccio	9	2	2	5	-5	8
13	Montpellier	8	2	1	5	-1	7
14	Lyon	8	2	1	5	-3	7
15	Brest	9	2	1	6	-5	7
16	Strasbourg	8	1	3	4	-4	6
17	Nantes	9	0	4	5	-9	4
18	Toulouse	8	1	1	6	-11	4
19	Angers	8	1	1	6	-11	4
20	Auxerre	9	1	1	7	-16	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.