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Ligue 1

Referee: B Bastien

Ajaccio

T U T T T

1–0

Full-time

Marseille

S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajaccio Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

0,0

1,7

Conceded

2,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-2,7

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 38%

16%

59%

Points per game

0,6

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

54%

62%

Both score Ø 50%

35%

65%

Average goals

2,6

2,9

Scored

0,6

1,8

Conceded

2,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

-1,4

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,12 xG 1,41

28% Possession 72%

3 Shots 17

1 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

2 Corners 3

2 Offside 0

19 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajaccio 19. · Marseille 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	37	27	4	6	+50	+8.7	85
2	Lens	37	24	9	4	+37	+9.6	81
3	Marseille	37	22	7	8	+28	+11.1	73
4	Lille	37	19	9	9	+21	+15.4	66
5	Rennes	37	20	5	12	+29	+8.0	65
6	Monaco	37	19	8	10	+13	+3.3	65
7	Lyon	37	18	8	11	+20	+3.6	62
8	Clermont	37	16	8	13	-5	-1.0	56
9	Nice	37	14	13	10	+9	+7.9	55
10	Lorient	37	14	10	13	-2	-6.3	52
11	Reims	37	12	15	10	+2	+8.8	51
12	Montpellier	37	14	5	18	+1	-1.3	47
13	Toulouse	37	12	9	16	-7	+0.7	45
14	Brest	37	11	11	15	-9	-6.8	44
15	Strasbourg	37	9	13	15	-7	+4.9	40
16	Auxerre	37	8	11	18	-26	-5.0	35
17	Nantes	37	6	15	16	-19	-8.6	33
18	Troyes	37	4	11	22	-36	-27.0	23
19	Ajaccio	37	6	5	26	-52	-11.7	23
20	Angers	37	4	6	27	-47	-14.3	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	19	17	1	1	+28	+3.1	52
2	Rennes	19	15	0	4	+29	+8.8	45
3	Lille	19	13	4	2	+15	+12.0	43
4	Paris SG	18	13	2	3	+21	+0.8	41
5	Lyon	19	10	5	4	+16	+5.3	35
6	Marseille	19	10	4	5	+11	+8.7	34
7	Reims	18	8	6	4	+7	+10.8	30
8	Monaco	18	9	3	6	+5	-0.8	30
9	Clermont	19	9	3	7	-8	+2.0	30
10	Lorient	18	8	4	6	+4	+1.4	28
11	Brest	18	7	5	6	-1	-0.6	26
12	Nice	18	6	7	5	+4	+3.5	25
13	Montpellier	19	7	3	9	+0	-1.0	24
14	Toulouse	19	6	6	7	+0	+2.2	24
15	Strasbourg	19	5	7	7	-1	+6.3	22
16	Auxerre	18	5	7	6	-8	+0.4	22
17	Nantes	18	4	8	6	-7	-2.2	20
18	Troyes	18	1	10	7	-11	-13.3	13
19	Angers	19	3	3	13	-16	-3.7	12
20	Ajaccio	18	3	3	12	-21	-2.2	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	19	14	2	3	+29	+7.9	44
2	Marseille	18	12	3	3	+17	+2.4	39
3	Monaco	19	10	5	4	+8	+4.1	35
4	Nice	19	8	6	5	+5	+4.4	30
5	Lens	18	7	8	3	+9	+6.6	29
6	Lyon	18	8	3	7	+4	-1.7	27
7	Clermont	18	7	5	6	+3	-3.0	26
8	Lorient	19	6	6	7	-6	-7.8	24
9	Lille	18	6	5	7	+6	+3.4	23
10	Montpellier	18	7	2	9	+1	-0.3	23
11	Reims	19	4	9	6	-5	-2.0	21
12	Toulouse	18	6	3	9	-7	-1.4	21
13	Rennes	18	5	5	8	+0	-0.9	20
14	Strasbourg	18	4	6	8	-6	-1.4	18
15	Brest	19	4	6	9	-8	-6.2	18
16	Nantes	19	2	7	10	-12	-6.4	13
17	Auxerre	19	3	4	12	-18	-5.4	13
18	Ajaccio	19	3	2	14	-31	-9.5	11
19	Troyes	19	3	1	15	-25	-13.7	10
20	Angers	18	1	3	14	-31	-10.6	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.